Prediction: SK Super Nova vs Ogre United
Expected goals: 3.22 (SK Super Nova 2.07 · Ogre United 1.14). The model gives 58% home, 23% draw, 19% away. Over 2.75 goals (54%) and both teams to score (56%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves SK Super Nova with 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses over 10 games; Ogre United has piled up 2-1-7 in the same span. In the last 4 head-to-head meetings the record reads 3 wins for SK Super Nova and 0 for Ogre United, with 1 draw.
| SK Super Nova | Draw | Ogre United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Market | 57% | 24% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SK Super Nova (rating 1478 vs 1436).
- H2H favours SK Super Nova: 3-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| SK Super Nova | Ogre United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.7 | 1 / 2.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.1 | 0.4 / 1.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 10/10/80% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.7 | 2.3 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0 | 4.2 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · SK Super Nova 3–1–0 Ogre United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Latvia Virsliga | SK Super Nova | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Ogre United |
| 03/04/26 Latvia Virsliga | Ogre United | 1-2 HT 0-2 | SK Super Nova |
| 10/11/24 Latvia 1. Liga | SK Super Nova | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Ogre United |
| 27/07/24 Latvia 1. Liga | Ogre United | 1-1 HT 1-1 | SK Super Nova |
Standings · Latvia Virsliga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RFS | 21 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 53 | 15 | 55 |
| 2 | Riga FC | 21 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 62 | 19 | 52 |
| 3 | FK Auda | 21 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 36 | 25 | 39 |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 31 | 28 |
| 5 | FK Jelgava | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 35 | 25 |
| 6 | SK Super Nova | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 22 | 33 | 24 |
| 7 | BFC Daugavpils | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 22 | 28 | 24 |
| 8 | Tukums 2000 | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 36 | 41 | 17 |
| 9 | SC Grobinas | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 32 | 17 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 21 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 54 | 10 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | SK Super Nova | Ogre United |
|---|---|---|
| Tukums 2000 | 2-1 W | 3-2 W |
| FK Jelgava | 1-5 L | 2-0 W |
| FK Auda | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| BFC Daugavpils | 0-0 D | 1-3 L |
| FK Liepaja | 1-2 L | 0-4 L |
| RFS | 1-2 L | 0-6 L |
| Riga FC | 0-3 L | 1-4 L |
| SC Grobinas | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 5 L | 2 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: SK Super Nova (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
SK Super Nova
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 25/06 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
1-3 | 1-5 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 21/06 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 16/06 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 12/06 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 29/05 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
0-3 | 0-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 20/05 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 11/05 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
Ogre United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
0-3 | 0-4 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 26/06 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
1-2 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 22/06 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
0-3 | 0-6 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 17/06 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 11 | L |
| 25/05 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 21/05 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 12/05 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in SK Super Nova vs Ogre United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a SK Super Nova win (58%). Probabilities: SK Super Nova 58%, draw 23%, Ogre United 19%.
How many goals are expected in SK Super Nova vs Ogre United?
The model expects 3.22 goals (SK Super Nova 2.07 · Ogre United 1.14), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in SK Super Nova vs Ogre United?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.