Prediction: Riga FC vs FK Jelgava
Expected goals: 3.76 (Riga FC 2.88 · FK Jelgava 0.88). The model gives 81% home, 12% draw, 7% away. Over 3.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (54%). Most likely score: 2-0.
On recent form, Riga FC is 8-2-0 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and FK Jelgava 3-5-2 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 4 wins for Riga FC and 0 for FK Jelgava, with 2 draws.
| Riga FC | Draw | FK Jelgava | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| Market | 83% | 11% | 6% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Riga FC (rating 1626 vs 1493).
- H2H favours Riga FC: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Riga FC | FK Jelgava | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 0.6 | 1.6 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.7 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 80/10/10% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.1 | 3.3 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.2 | 3.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Riga FC 4–2–0 FK Jelgava
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Latvia Virsliga | Riga FC | 2-2 HT 0-2 | FK Jelgava |
| 04/04/26 Latvia Virsliga | FK Jelgava | 0-8 HT 0-2 | Riga FC |
| 21/09/25 Latvia Virsliga | FK Jelgava | 2-3 HT 0-0 | Riga FC |
| 01/07/25 Latvia Virsliga | Riga FC | 3-0 HT 2-0 | FK Jelgava |
| 10/05/25 Latvia Virsliga | Riga FC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | FK Jelgava |
| 15/03/25 Latvia Virsliga | FK Jelgava | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Riga FC |
Standings · Latvia Virsliga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RFS | 21 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 53 | 15 | 55 |
| 2 | Riga FC | 21 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 62 | 19 | 52 |
| 3 | FK Auda | 21 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 36 | 25 | 39 |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 31 | 28 |
| 5 | FK Jelgava | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 35 | 25 |
| 6 | SK Super Nova | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 22 | 33 | 24 |
| 7 | BFC Daugavpils | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 22 | 28 | 24 |
| 8 | Tukums 2000 | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 36 | 41 | 17 |
| 9 | SC Grobinas | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 32 | 17 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 21 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 54 | 10 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Riga FC | FK Jelgava |
|---|---|---|
| FK Auda | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| BFC Daugavpils | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| FK Liepaja | 4-0 W | 1-1 D |
| RFS | 2-1 W | 0-4 L |
| Ogre United | 4-1 W | 0-2 L |
| SC Grobinas | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| SK Super Nova | 3-0 W | 5-1 W |
| Tukums 2000 | 3-1 W | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 7 W 1 D 0 L | 3 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Riga FC (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Riga FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 25/06 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | D |
| 21/06 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 17/06 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 13/06 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
3-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 20/05 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 12/05 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
2-1 | 4-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
FK Jelgava
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 25/06 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
3-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 17/06 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 31/05 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 1 | D |
| 26/05 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 21/05 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 16/05 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 11/05 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Riga FC vs FK Jelgava?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Riga FC win (81%). Probabilities: Riga FC 81%, draw 12%, FK Jelgava 7%.
How many goals are expected in Riga FC vs FK Jelgava?
The model expects 3.76 goals (Riga FC 2.88 · FK Jelgava 0.88), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Riga FC vs FK Jelgava?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.