Prediction: RFS vs FK Auda
Expected goals: 2.74 (RFS 1.99 · FK Auda 0.75). The model gives 67% home, 20% draw, 13% away. Under 3 goals (55%) and both teams to score (50%). Most likely score: 2-0.
Over its last 10 matches, RFS sits at 9-0-1 (W-D-L), while FK Auda arrives on a 4-2-4 run. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 4 wins for RFS and 2 for FK Auda.
| RFS | Draw | FK Auda | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 22% | 12% |
| Market | 67% | 19% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours RFS (rating 1593 vs 1513).
- H2H favours RFS: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| RFS | FK Auda | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.8 / 0.6 | 1.1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 7.3 | 2.5 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.2 | 5.2 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · RFS 4–0–2 FK Auda
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Latvia Virsliga | FK Auda | 0-3 HT 0-2 | RFS |
| 04/04/26 Latvia Virsliga | RFS | 0-1 HT 0-1 | FK Auda |
| 17/09/25 Latvia Cup | RFS | 0-2 HT 0-0 | FK Auda |
| 31/08/25 Latvia Virsliga | FK Auda | 0-1 HT 0-0 | RFS |
| 22/06/25 Latvia Virsliga | RFS | 1-0 HT 0-0 | FK Auda |
| 01/05/25 Latvia Virsliga | RFS | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FK Auda |
Standings · Latvia Virsliga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RFS | 21 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 53 | 15 | 55 |
| 2 | Riga FC | 21 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 62 | 19 | 52 |
| 3 | FK Auda | 21 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 36 | 25 | 39 |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 31 | 28 |
| 5 | FK Jelgava | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 35 | 25 |
| 6 | SK Super Nova | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 22 | 33 | 24 |
| 7 | BFC Daugavpils | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 22 | 28 | 24 |
| 8 | Tukums 2000 | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 36 | 41 | 17 |
| 9 | SC Grobinas | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 32 | 17 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 21 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 54 | 10 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | RFS | FK Auda |
|---|---|---|
| BFC Daugavpils | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| FK Liepaja | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Ogre United | 6-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Riga FC | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| SC Grobinas | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| SK Super Nova | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Tukums 2000 | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| FK Jelgava | 4-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 7 W 0 D 1 L | 4 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: RFS (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
RFS
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 26/06 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 22/06 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
3-0 | 6-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 17/06 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 13/06 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 29/05 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 15 | 4 | W |
| 25/05 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 21/05 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 13/05 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
FK Auda
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 25/06 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 15 | 4 | D |
| 21/06 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 17/06 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 13/06 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 30/05 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 11 | W |
| 26/05 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 12/05 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
1-2 | 1-4 | 1 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in RFS vs FK Auda?
According to our model, the most likely result is a RFS win (67%). Probabilities: RFS 67%, draw 20%, FK Auda 13%.
How many goals are expected in RFS vs FK Auda?
The model expects 2.74 goals (RFS 1.99 · FK Auda 0.75), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in RFS vs FK Auda?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.