Prediction: BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja
Expected goals: 2.5 (BFC Daugavpils 1.16 · FK Liepaja 1.34). The model gives 32% home, 28% draw, 40% away. Under 2.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (53%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves BFC Daugavpils with 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses over 10 games; FK Liepaja has piled up 5-1-4 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, BFC Daugavpils won 1 and FK Liepaja 4, with 1 draw.
| BFC Daugavpils | Draw | FK Liepaja | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| Market | 32% | 27% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Liepaja (rating 1462 vs 1518).
- H2H favours FK Liepaja: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| BFC Daugavpils | FK Liepaja | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1 | 1.7 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.3 | 0.9 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.3 | 3.3 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0.1 | 4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · BFC Daugavpils 1–1–4 FK Liepaja
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Latvia Virsliga | FK Liepaja | 2-1 HT 1-0 | BFC Daugavpils |
| 03/04/26 Latvia Virsliga | BFC Daugavpils | 2-0 HT 1-0 | FK Liepaja |
| 02/11/25 Latvia Virsliga | BFC Daugavpils | 1-2 HT 0-0 | FK Liepaja |
| 16/08/25 Latvia Cup | BFC Daugavpils | 1-2 HT 1-0 | FK Liepaja |
| 09/08/25 Latvia Virsliga | FK Liepaja | 2-1 HT 0-0 | BFC Daugavpils |
| 13/06/25 Latvia Virsliga | FK Liepaja | 1-1 HT 1-0 | BFC Daugavpils |
Standings · Latvia Virsliga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RFS | 21 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 53 | 15 | 55 |
| 2 | Riga FC | 21 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 62 | 19 | 52 |
| 3 | FK Auda | 21 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 36 | 25 | 39 |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 31 | 28 |
| 5 | FK Jelgava | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 35 | 25 |
| 6 | SK Super Nova | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 22 | 33 | 24 |
| 7 | BFC Daugavpils | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 22 | 28 | 24 |
| 8 | Tukums 2000 | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 36 | 41 | 17 |
| 9 | SC Grobinas | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 32 | 17 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 21 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 54 | 10 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | BFC Daugavpils | FK Liepaja |
|---|---|---|
| RFS | 1-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Riga FC | 0-0 D | 0-4 L |
| SC Grobinas | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| SK Super Nova | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Tukums 2000 | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| FK Jelgava | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| FK Auda | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Ogre United | 3-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 4 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 4 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
BFC Daugavpils
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 25/06 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 20/06 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 16/06 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 12/06 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 31/05 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 26/05 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 21/05 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 13/05 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
FK Liepaja
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
3-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 26/06 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 21/06 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
0-3 | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 16/06 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 12 | 5 | L |
| 12/06 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 30/05 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 26/05 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 5 | D |
| 22/05 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 12/05 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Liepaja win (40%). Probabilities: BFC Daugavpils 32%, draw 28%, FK Liepaja 40%.
How many goals are expected in BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja?
The model expects 2.5 goals (BFC Daugavpils 1.16 · FK Liepaja 1.34), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.