Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 01/08, 14:00

Prediction: Piteå IF vs Gefle IF

Team pages: Piteå IF · Gefle IF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Piteå IF1.32

Gefle IF1.79

1X2

27% 25% 47%

Piteå IF Draw Gefle IF

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Piteå IF 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDDWLLDL

Gefle IF 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLDLWLDLLW

Head-to-head

Piteå IF 1–1–2 Gefle IF (4 last)

Piteå IF1-4Gefle IF
Gefle IF2-2Piteå IF
Gefle IF1-0Piteå IF
Piteå IF2-0Gefle IF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Piteå IF 1478 · Gefle IF 1462

	Piteå IF	Draw	Gefle IF
Our model	27%	25%	47%
Market	27%	25%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gefle IF: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Piteå IF	Gefle IF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.3	0.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.3	0.1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	0/30/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.8 / 1.8	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	2.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.60

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	2.30 → 1.90▼	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
20:10 +4’	2.55	3.50	2.30
22:09 +2’	3.30▲	3.60▲	1.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Piteå IF 1–1–2 Gefle IF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/09/22 Sweden 1.div Norra	Piteå IF	1-4 HT 1-2	Gefle IF
26/05/22 Sweden 1.div Norra	Gefle IF	2-2 HT 1-0	Piteå IF
07/11/21 Sweden 1.div Norra	Gefle IF	1-0 HT 1-0	Piteå IF
05/08/21 Sweden 1.div Norra	Piteå IF	2-0 HT 0-0	Gefle IF

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hammarby TFF	14	10	2	2	38	11	32
2	IF Karlstad Fotboll	14	9	3	2	22	9	30
3	FC Arlanda	14	8	5	1	23	10	29
4	FC Stockholm Internazionale	14	8	3	3	28	14	27
5	Enkopings SK	14	8	1	5	24	23	25
6	FBK Karlstad	14	7	3	4	23	20	24
7	AFC Eskilstuna	14	5	4	5	23	24	19
8	Karlbergs BK	14	5	3	6	23	23	18
9	Umeå FC	14	4	4	6	20	24	16
10	FC Järfälla	14	4	3	7	21	27	15
11	Vasalunds IF	14	4	3	7	20	30	15
12	Assyriska Föreningen	14	3	5	6	22	29	14
13	Gefle IF	14	4	2	8	17	29	14
14	Sollentuna United FF	14	2	7	5	12	19	13
15	Piteå IF	14	2	3	9	16	32	9
16	IFK Stocksund	14	1	5	8	28	36	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Piteå IF	Gefle IF
Umeå FC	0-2 L	2-2 D
FC Stockholm Internazionale	2-2 D	0-2 L
IFK Stocksund	3-2 W	2-1 W
Vasalunds IF	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Piteå IF (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Piteå IF

WLWDDWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/06	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	1-3	4	4	L
21/06	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	2-2	2	2	D
12/06	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-2	1	1	L
07/06	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	0	3	L
03/06	Ostra Ersboda FC Sweden Cup Qualification	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
31/05	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	2-2	0	3	D
24/05	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-2	2	5	D
17/05	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	2-2	3-2	3	2	W
14/05	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	1-2	1-5	0	2	L
10/05	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	2-1	4	3	W

Gefle IF

DLDLWLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-1	7	5	W
18/06	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
13/06	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
10/06	Falu BS FK Sweden Cup	0-0	0-0	9	1	D
06/06	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-4	4	3	L
01/06	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	3-2	0	3	W
23/05	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-4	8	4	L
17/05	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
14/05	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
09/05	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	1-2	2-2	3	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Piteå IF vs Gefle IF?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gefle IF win (47%). Probabilities: Piteå IF 27%, draw 25%, Gefle IF 47%.

How many goals are expected in Piteå IF vs Gefle IF?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Piteå IF 1.32 · Gefle IF 1.79), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Piteå IF vs Gefle IF?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.