Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 03/08, 19:30

Prediction: Hammarby TFF vs FC Arlanda

Team pages: Hammarby TFF · FC Arlanda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Hammarby TFF1.88

FC Arlanda1.02

1X2

57% 23% 20%

Hammarby TFF Draw FC Arlanda

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Hammarby TFF 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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FC Arlanda 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Hammarby TFF 1–1 FC Arlanda (2 last)

Hammarby TFF3-1FC Arlanda
FC Arlanda1-0Hammarby TFF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hammarby TFF 1610 · FC Arlanda 1553

	Hammarby TFF	Draw	FC Arlanda
Our model	56%	24%	19%
Market	58%	21%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hammarby TFF (rating 1610 vs 1553).
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hammarby TFF	FC Arlanda
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 0.4	1.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.1	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.3	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.55

X4.20

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:21 +2’	1.55	4.20	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hammarby TFF 1–0–1 FC Arlanda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/10/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	Hammarby TFF	3-1 HT 1-0	FC Arlanda
08/06/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	FC Arlanda	1-0 HT 0-0	Hammarby TFF

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hammarby TFF	14	10	2	2	38	11	32
2	IF Karlstad Fotboll	14	9	3	2	22	9	30
3	FC Arlanda	14	8	5	1	23	10	29
4	FC Stockholm Internazionale	14	8	3	3	28	14	27
5	Enkopings SK	14	8	1	5	24	23	25
6	FBK Karlstad	14	7	3	4	23	20	24
7	AFC Eskilstuna	14	5	4	5	23	24	19
8	Karlbergs BK	14	5	3	6	23	23	18
9	Umeå FC	14	4	4	6	20	24	16
10	FC Järfälla	14	4	3	7	21	27	15
11	Vasalunds IF	14	4	3	7	20	30	15
12	Assyriska Föreningen	14	3	5	6	22	29	14
13	Gefle IF	14	4	2	8	17	29	14
14	Sollentuna United FF	14	2	7	5	12	19	13
15	Piteå IF	14	2	3	9	16	32	9
16	IFK Stocksund	14	1	5	8	28	36	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hammarby TFF	FC Arlanda
FBK Karlstad	7-0 W	0-0 D
FC Järfälla	1-1 D	2-0 W
Karlbergs BK	2-0 W	1-1 D
Gefle IF	4-0 W	2-3 L
AFC Eskilstuna	1-2 L	0-0 D
Assyriska Föreningen	4-0 W	2-0 W
IF Karlstad Fotboll	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hammarby TFF (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Hammarby TFF

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/06	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	7-0	8	1	W
18/06	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-1	2	1	D
14/06	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
06/06	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	4-0	5	3	W
30/05	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
23/05	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-0	8	7	W
16/05	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	3-1	4	3	W
13/05	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
09/05	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	4-0	7	5	W
02/05	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	4	2	W

FC Arlanda

DDDLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	IFK Haninge Club Friendly List	2-1	6-1	9	1	W
27/06	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	0	6	W
23/06	FC Järfälla Sweden Cup	1-0	2-0	6	6	W
18/06	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
13/06	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	3-2	6	4	W
07/06	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
01/06	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	2-3	8	3	L
23/05	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
18/05	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
13/05	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-1	0	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hammarby TFF vs FC Arlanda?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hammarby TFF win (57%). Probabilities: Hammarby TFF 57%, draw 23%, FC Arlanda 20%.

How many goals are expected in Hammarby TFF vs FC Arlanda?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Hammarby TFF 1.88 · FC Arlanda 1.02), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Hammarby TFF vs FC Arlanda?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.