Football · Sweden 1.div Södra · 22/08, 13:00

Prediction: Ariana FC Malmo vs Lunds BK

Team pages: Ariana FC Malmo · Lunds BK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

Ariana FC Malmo1.89

Lunds BK1.39

1X2

48% 24% 27%

Ariana FC Malmo Draw Lunds BK

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Ariana FC Malmo 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Lunds BK 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Ariana FC Malmo 2–2–2 Lunds BK (6 last)

Lunds BK1-4Ariana FC Malmo
Lunds BK1-3Ariana FC Malmo
Ariana FC Malmo0-1Lunds BK
Lunds BK0-0Ariana FC Malmo
Ariana FC Malmo0-1Lunds BK
Lunds BK1-1Ariana FC Malmo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ariana FC Malmo 1519 · Lunds BK 1514

	Ariana FC Malmo	Draw	Lunds BK
Our model	48%	24%	27%
Market	48%	24%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ariana FC Malmo	Lunds BK
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.7	1.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.8	3.3 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.70

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
21:28 +13’	1.85	3.70	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ariana FC Malmo 2–2–2 Lunds BK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/06/26 Sweden 1.div Södra	Lunds BK	1-4 HT 0-3	Ariana FC Malmo
07/03/26 Club Friendly List	Lunds BK	1-3 HT 0-1	Ariana FC Malmo
03/10/25 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ariana FC Malmo	0-1 HT 0-0	Lunds BK
28/04/25 Sweden 1.div Södra	Lunds BK	0-0 HT 0-0	Ariana FC Malmo
14/03/25 Europe Friendlies	Ariana FC Malmo	0-1 HT 0-1	Lunds BK
10/08/24 Sweden 1.div Södra	Lunds BK	1-1 HT 0-1	Ariana FC Malmo

Standings · Sweden 1.div Södra · Ettan 2026, Sodra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Trelleborgs FF	17	10	6	1	38	18	36
2	Atvidabergs FF	17	9	5	3	34	22	32
3	Hässleholms IF	17	9	3	5	34	22	30
4	Ariana FC Malmo	17	8	5	4	33	22	29
5	Lunds BK	17	7	7	3	29	22	28
6	FC Rosengård 1917	17	7	6	4	28	22	27
7	Tvååkers IF	17	7	4	6	22	24	25
8	Eskilsminne IF	17	7	3	7	28	29	24
9	BK Olympic	17	7	2	8	27	29	23
10	Jonkopings Sodra	17	6	4	7	24	19	22
11	FC Trollhättan	17	4	7	6	20	27	19
12	Angelholm	17	3	8	6	24	26	17
13	Laholms FK	17	5	2	10	22	30	17
14	Kristianstad FC	17	4	5	8	18	26	17
15	Skövde AIK	17	3	8	6	14	26	17
16	Utsiktens BK	17	1	3	13	13	44	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ariana FC Malmo	Lunds BK
BK Olympic	2-2 D	3-1 W
Trelleborgs FF	1-2 L	2-2 D
Jonkopings Sodra	1-0 W	0-0 D
Eskilsminne IF	2-1 W	4-2 W
Skövde AIK	4-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Lunds BK (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Ariana FC Malmo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	2-2	12	4	D
08/08	Trelleborgs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	1-2	4	2	L
01/08	Angelholm Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	2-2	7	4	D
27/06	Jonkopings Sodra Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
21/06	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	1-2	13	3	L
12/06	Lunds BK Sweden 1.div Södra	3-0	4-1	5	1	W
07/06	Eskilsminne IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
30/05	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	2-2	4-2	9	4	W
26/05	BK Olympic Sweden Cup Qualification	2-2	3-5	7	3	L
23/05	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	2-0	4-0	5	1	W

Lunds BK

WWWDLDWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Hässleholms IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	0-3	9	4	L
08/08	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
02/08	Trelleborgs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
27/06	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	2-0	2-1	8	4	W
18/06	Jonkopings Sodra Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
12/06	Ariana FC Malmo Sweden 1.div Södra	0-3	1-4	10	1	L
07/06	Kristianstad FC Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	1-1	13	1	D
03/06	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	3-1	6	1	W
22/05	Eskilsminne IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	4-2	4	3	W
17/05	Utsiktens BK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	5-0	3	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ariana FC Malmo vs Lunds BK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ariana FC Malmo win (48%). Probabilities: Ariana FC Malmo 48%, draw 24%, Lunds BK 27%.

How many goals are expected in Ariana FC Malmo vs Lunds BK?

The model expects 3.28 goals (Ariana FC Malmo 1.89 · Lunds BK 1.39), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Ariana FC Malmo vs Lunds BK?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.