Football · Sweden 1.div Södra · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: Ariana FC Malmo vs Atvidabergs FF

Team pages: Ariana FC Malmo · Atvidabergs FF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.78Total

Ariana FC Malmo1.95

Atvidabergs FF1.83

1X2

40% 24% 36%

Ariana FC Malmo Draw Atvidabergs FF

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Ariana FC Malmo 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDLDLD

Atvidabergs FF 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWDLWWWL

Head-to-head

Ariana FC Malmo 1–2 Atvidabergs FF (3 last)

Atvidabergs FF3-0Ariana FC Malmo
Ariana FC Malmo6-0Atvidabergs FF
Atvidabergs FF2-0Ariana FC Malmo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ariana FC Malmo 1494 · Atvidabergs FF 1539

	Ariana FC Malmo	Draw	Atvidabergs FF
Our model	41%	23%	36%
Market	40%	25%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.78 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atvidabergs FF (rating 1494 vs 1539).
H2H favours Atvidabergs FF: 2-0-1.
High corners: 13.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ariana FC Malmo	Atvidabergs FF
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.9	2.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	1.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	60/0/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.4	3.2 / 7.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.2	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.60

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 1.15 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.77 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
08:14 +28’	2.25	3.60	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:30	2.23	3.54	2.77

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ariana FC Malmo 1–0–2 Atvidabergs FF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Sweden 1.div Södra	Atvidabergs FF	3-0 HT 2-0	Ariana FC Malmo
05/08/23 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ariana FC Malmo	6-0 HT 1-0	Atvidabergs FF
13/05/23 Sweden 1.div Södra	Atvidabergs FF	2-0 HT 1-0	Ariana FC Malmo

Standings · Sweden 1.div Södra · Ettan 2026, Sodra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Trelleborgs FF	19	11	6	2	41	21	39
2	Hässleholms IF	19	11	3	5	38	23	36
3	Atvidabergs FF	19	10	5	4	40	28	35
4	Lunds BK	19	9	7	3	41	25	34
5	FC Rosengård 1917	19	8	7	4	31	24	31
6	Ariana FC Malmo	19	8	6	5	37	29	30
7	Tvååkers IF	19	8	5	6	27	28	29
8	Jonkopings Sodra	19	7	5	7	25	19	26
9	Eskilsminne IF	19	7	4	8	30	33	25
10	BK Olympic	19	7	2	10	31	40	23
11	FC Trollhättan	19	5	7	7	24	31	22
12	Skövde AIK	19	4	9	6	18	28	21
13	Kristianstad FC	19	5	5	9	24	31	20
14	Laholms FK	19	5	3	11	25	34	18
15	Angelholm	19	3	8	8	25	31	17
16	Utsiktens BK	19	1	4	14	16	48	7

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ariana FC Malmo	Atvidabergs FF
Angelholm	2-2 D	4-1 W
Eskilsminne IF	2-1 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Atvidabergs FF (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ariana FC Malmo

WWWLWDLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-2	5	4	D
22/08	Lunds BK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-5	3	2	L
15/08	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	2-2	12	4	D
08/08	Trelleborgs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	1-2	4	2	L
01/08	Angelholm Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	2-2	7	4	D
27/06	Jonkopings Sodra Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
21/06	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	1-2	13	3	L
12/06	Lunds BK Sweden 1.div Södra	3-0	4-1	5	1	W
07/06	Eskilsminne IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
30/05	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	2-2	4-2	9	4	W

Atvidabergs FF

DDWWDLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Kristianstad FC Sweden 1.div Södra	1-4	2-5	6	3	L
22/08	Angelholm Sweden 1.div Södra	2-0	4-1	2	2	W
16/08	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
08/08	Tvååkers IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	2-1	13	5	W
01/08	Hässleholms IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	0-2	16	3	L
27/06	FC Rosengård 1917 Sweden 1.div Södra	3-2	3-3	4	3	D
17/06	Utsiktens BK Sweden 1.div Södra	2-0	3-0	6	0	W
13/06	Eskilsminne IF Sweden 1.div Södra	3-0	4-0	2	3	W
07/06	Tvååkers IF Sweden 1.div Södra	2-0	2-2	10	4	D
30/05	FC Trollhättan Sweden 1.div Södra	1-2	3-3	5	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ariana FC Malmo vs Atvidabergs FF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ariana FC Malmo win (40%). Probabilities: Ariana FC Malmo 40%, draw 24%, Atvidabergs FF 36%.

How many goals are expected in Ariana FC Malmo vs Atvidabergs FF?

The model expects 3.78 goals (Ariana FC Malmo 1.95 · Atvidabergs FF 1.83), with a 58% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Ariana FC Malmo vs Atvidabergs FF?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.