Football · Sweden 1.div Södra · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Tvååkers IF vs Ariana FC Malmo

Team pages: Tvååkers IF · Ariana FC Malmo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.47Total

Tvååkers IF1.62

Ariana FC Malmo1.85

1X2

33% 24% 43%

Tvååkers IF Draw Ariana FC Malmo

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Tvååkers IF 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWLDLWWDW

Ariana FC Malmo 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWDLDLDD

Head-to-head

Tvååkers IF 2–3 Ariana FC Malmo (5 last)

Ariana FC Malmo0-1Tvååkers IF
Ariana FC Malmo4-1Tvååkers IF
Tvååkers IF0-2Ariana FC Malmo
Ariana FC Malmo0-1Tvååkers IF
Tvååkers IF0-1Ariana FC Malmo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tvååkers IF 1547 · Ariana FC Malmo 1481

	Tvååkers IF	Draw	Ariana FC Malmo
Our model	33%	24%	43%
Market	33%	24%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.47 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tvååkers IF (rating 1547 vs 1481).
H2H favours Ariana FC Malmo: 3-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tvååkers IF	Ariana FC Malmo
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.8	1.9 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.3	3.4 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.1	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.75

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:17 +49’	2.70	3.75	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tvååkers IF 2–0–3 Ariana FC Malmo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/05/26 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ariana FC Malmo	0-1 HT 0-0	Tvååkers IF
25/08/24 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ariana FC Malmo	4-1 HT 3-1	Tvååkers IF
08/06/24 Sweden 1.div Södra	Tvååkers IF	0-2 HT 0-1	Ariana FC Malmo
19/08/23 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ariana FC Malmo	0-1 HT 0-0	Tvååkers IF
29/04/23 Sweden 1.div Södra	Tvååkers IF	0-1 HT 0-1	Ariana FC Malmo

Standings · Sweden 1.div Södra · Ettan 2026, Sodra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Trelleborgs FF	20	11	6	3	42	23	39
2	Hässleholms IF	20	12	3	5	40	24	39
3	Atvidabergs FF	20	10	6	4	42	30	36
4	Lunds BK	20	9	8	3	42	26	35
5	FC Rosengård 1917	20	9	7	4	35	26	34
6	Tvååkers IF	20	9	5	6	28	28	32
7	Ariana FC Malmo	20	8	7	5	39	31	31
8	Jonkopings Sodra	20	7	5	8	25	20	26
9	BK Olympic	20	8	2	10	36	40	26
10	Eskilsminne IF	20	7	4	9	32	37	25
11	FC Trollhättan	20	6	7	7	28	33	25
12	Skövde AIK	20	5	9	6	20	29	24
13	Kristianstad FC	20	5	5	10	25	33	20
14	Laholms FK	20	5	3	12	27	38	18
15	Angelholm	20	3	8	9	25	36	17
16	Utsiktens BK	20	1	5	14	17	49	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tvååkers IF	Ariana FC Malmo
Jonkopings Sodra	1-0 W	1-0 W
BK Olympic	4-3 W	2-2 D
Atvidabergs FF	1-2 L	2-2 D
Angelholm	3-2 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Tvååkers IF (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tvååkers IF

DWWLDLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Jonkopings Sodra Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
29/08	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	1-1	1	1	D
22/08	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	2-1	4-3	2	2	W
15/08	Kristianstad FC Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	2-1	6	2	W
08/08	Atvidabergs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
01/08	Utsiktens BK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-2	5	2	D
26/06	Hässleholms IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-3	2-4	4	1	L
18/06	Angelholm Sweden 1.div Södra	2-1	3-2	3	0	W
13/06	Jonkopings Sodra Sweden 1.div Södra	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
07/06	Atvidabergs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	2-2	5	4	D

Ariana FC Malmo

WWLWDLDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Atvidabergs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-2	2-2	2	3	D
30/08	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-2	5	4	D
22/08	Lunds BK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-5	3	2	L
15/08	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	2-2	12	4	D
08/08	Trelleborgs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	1-2	4	2	L
01/08	Angelholm Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	2-2	7	4	D
27/06	Jonkopings Sodra Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
21/06	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	1-2	13	3	L
12/06	Lunds BK Sweden 1.div Södra	3-0	4-1	5	1	W
07/06	Eskilsminne IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-1	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tvååkers IF vs Ariana FC Malmo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ariana FC Malmo win (43%). Probabilities: Tvååkers IF 33%, draw 24%, Ariana FC Malmo 43%.

How many goals are expected in Tvååkers IF vs Ariana FC Malmo?

The model expects 3.47 goals (Tvååkers IF 1.62 · Ariana FC Malmo 1.85), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Tvååkers IF vs Ariana FC Malmo?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.