Football · Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand · 19/09, 13:00

Prediction: Smedby AIS vs Fittja IF

Team pages: Smedby AIS · Fittja IF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Smedby AIS1.75

Fittja IF1.38

1X2

45% 25% 30%

Smedby AIS Draw Fittja IF

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Smedby AIS 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWDWDWDL

Fittja IF 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLWWWLDL

Head-to-head

Smedby AIS 0–1 Fittja IF (1 last)

Fittja IF5-3Smedby AIS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Smedby AIS 1502 · Fittja IF 1499

	Smedby AIS	Draw	Fittja IF
Our model	45%	25%	29%
Market	46%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Smedby AIS	Fittja IF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.3	1.6 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.60

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.77

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:29 +10’	1.95	3.60	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Smedby AIS 0–0–1 Fittja IF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	Fittja IF	5-3 HT 3-1	Smedby AIS

Standings · Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand · Sodra Svealand

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IK Sleipner	21	13	4	4	47	32	43
2	FOC Farsta	21	13	3	5	47	22	42
3	Nykopings BIS	21	12	3	6	37	21	39
4	BK Forward	21	12	3	6	40	26	39
5	IFK Haninge	20	11	3	6	49	36	36
6	Smedby AIS	21	10	5	6	39	29	35
7	Ragsveds IF	21	10	5	6	40	33	35
8	Fittja IF	21	9	3	9	34	34	30
9	Karlslunds IF FK	21	6	6	9	28	35	24
10	Örebro Syrianska IF	21	7	2	12	22	25	23
11	Nacka FC	21	5	3	13	22	40	18
12	Lindö FF	21	5	2	14	27	41	17
13	Syrianska FC	20	4	5	11	28	48	17
14	IF Eker Örebro	21	4	3	14	22	60	15
15	IF Sylvia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Smedby AIS	Fittja IF
BK Forward	3-1 W	1-2 L
Syrianska FC	2-2 D	0-0 D
IF Eker Örebro	1-0 W	2-0 W
Karlslunds IF FK	1-1 D	2-2 D
Örebro Syrianska IF	2-0 W	0-1 L
Lindö FF	0-2 L	3-2 W
IFK Haninge	1-4 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Fittja IF (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Smedby AIS

WLLWDWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	FOC Farsta Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-0	0-3	6	1	L
05/09	Nacka FC Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-0	1-1	6	7	D
29/08	BK Forward Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	3-1	3-1	3	3	W
22/08	Syrianska FC Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
15/08	IF Eker Örebro Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
08/08	Karlslunds IF FK Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
01/08	Örebro Syrianska IF Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
24/06	Lindö FF Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
21/06	IFK Haninge Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-3	1-4	6	3	L
15/06	Nykopings BIS Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-0	1-0	2	3	W

Fittja IF

WLDLWWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	BK Forward Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
06/09	Syrianska FC Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
29/08	Örebro Syrianska IF Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
23/08	IF Eker Örebro Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
16/08	Ragsveds IF Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
09/08	Lindö FF Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	2-0	3-2	4	5	W
02/08	IFK Haninge Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-0	0-2	3	6	L
28/06	Karlslunds IF FK Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-1	2-2	6	6	D
21/06	BK Forward Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-1	1-3	3	3	L
13/06	Karlslunds IF FK Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-1	2-1	8	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Smedby AIS vs Fittja IF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Smedby AIS win (45%). Probabilities: Smedby AIS 45%, draw 25%, Fittja IF 30%.

How many goals are expected in Smedby AIS vs Fittja IF?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Smedby AIS 1.75 · Fittja IF 1.38), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Smedby AIS vs Fittja IF?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.