Football · Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand · 26/09, 14:00

Prediction: Fittja IF vs Nacka FC

Team pages: Fittja IF · Nacka FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Fittja IF1.4

Nacka FC1.2

1X2

41% 27% 32%

Fittja IF Draw Nacka FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Fittja IF 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Nacka FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Fittja IF 0–1 Nacka FC (1 last)

Nacka FC2-1Fittja IF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fittja IF 1494 · Nacka FC 1514

	Fittja IF	Draw	Nacka FC
Our model	40%	29%	31%
Market	42%	25%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fittja IF	Nacka FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.5	3.8 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.60

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:43 +1’	2.10	3.60	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fittja IF 0–0–1 Nacka FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	Nacka FC	2-1 HT 0-1	Fittja IF

Standings · Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand · Sodra Svealand

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IK Sleipner	22	13	4	5	48	35	43
2	FOC Farsta	22	13	3	6	47	25	42
3	BK Forward	22	13	3	6	42	26	42
4	Nykopings BIS	22	12	3	7	37	22	39
5	IFK Haninge	22	12	3	7	54	42	39
6	Smedby AIS	22	10	5	7	39	30	35
7	Ragsveds IF	22	10	5	7	40	34	35
8	Fittja IF	22	10	3	9	35	34	33
9	Karlslunds IF FK	22	7	6	9	31	35	27
10	Örebro Syrianska IF	22	8	2	12	23	25	26
11	Syrianska FC	22	6	5	11	33	49	23
12	Nacka FC	22	6	3	13	23	40	21
13	Lindö FF	22	5	2	15	27	43	17
14	IF Eker Örebro	22	4	3	15	26	65	15
15	IF Sylvia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fittja IF	Nacka FC
Smedby AIS	1-0 W	1-1 D
BK Forward	1-2 L	1-0 W
Örebro Syrianska IF	0-1 L	1-0 W
IF Eker Örebro	2-0 W	4-0 W
Ragsveds IF	1-0 W	1-0 W
Lindö FF	3-2 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Nacka FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fittja IF

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Smedby AIS Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
13/09	BK Forward Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
06/09	Syrianska FC Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
29/08	Örebro Syrianska IF Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
23/08	IF Eker Örebro Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
16/08	Ragsveds IF Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
09/08	Lindö FF Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	2-0	3-2	4	5	W
02/08	IFK Haninge Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-0	0-2	3	6	L
28/06	Karlslunds IF FK Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-1	2-2	6	6	D
21/06	BK Forward Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-1	1-3	3	3	L

Nacka FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Ragsveds IF Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
12/09	IK Sleipner Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-1	0-1	10	5	L
05/09	Smedby AIS Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-0	1-1	3	7	D
28/08	FOC Farsta Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	1-1	1-4	8	4	L
22/08	BK Forward Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
16/08	Örebro Syrianska IF Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	1-0	1-0	16	4	W
09/08	IF Eker Örebro Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-0	4-0	–	–	W
01/08	Lindö FF Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	1-1	1-1	6	1	D
25/06	Nykopings BIS Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-2	1-4	3	0	L
21/06	IF Eker Örebro Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand	0-0	0-1	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fittja IF vs Nacka FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fittja IF win (41%). Probabilities: Fittja IF 41%, draw 27%, Nacka FC 32%.

How many goals are expected in Fittja IF vs Nacka FC?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Fittja IF 1.4 · Nacka FC 1.2), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Fittja IF vs Nacka FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.