Football · Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland · 19/09, 15:00

Prediction: Hestrafors IF vs IK Kongahälla

Team pages: Hestrafors IF · IK Kongahälla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.7Total

Hestrafors IF2.23

IK Kongahälla1.47

1X2

54% 22% 24%

Hestrafors IF Draw IK Kongahälla

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Hestrafors IF 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWDWWW

IK Kongahälla 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDLWLLWW

Head-to-head

Hestrafors IF 2–1–0 IK Kongahälla (3 last)

IK Kongahälla0-3Hestrafors IF
IK Kongahälla0-0Hestrafors IF
Hestrafors IF3-1IK Kongahälla

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hestrafors IF 1582 · IK Kongahälla 1496

	Hestrafors IF	Draw	IK Kongahälla
Our model	54%	22%	24%
Market	54%	22%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.7 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hestrafors IF (rating 1582 vs 1496).
H2H favours Hestrafors IF: 2-1-0.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hestrafors IF	IK Kongahälla
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.3	1.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.5	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5	3.4 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	2.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.10

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:09 +17’	1.67	4.10	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hestrafors IF 2–1–0 IK Kongahälla

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/06/26 Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	IK Kongahälla	0-3 HT 0-2	Hestrafors IF
20/08/19 Sweden 3.div Nordvästra Götaland	IK Kongahälla	0-0 HT 0-0	Hestrafors IF
10/08/18 Sweden 3.div Nordvästra Götaland	Hestrafors IF	3-1 HT 1-0	IK Kongahälla

Standings · Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland · Vastra Gotaland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Landvetter IS	21	15	2	4	37	17	47
2	Hestrafors IF	21	12	4	5	46	34	40
3	Dalstorps IF	21	11	6	4	41	23	39
4	Jonsereds IF	21	11	5	5	38	34	38
5	Lindome GIF	21	10	4	7	39	31	34
6	Västra Frölunda IF	21	9	6	6	41	34	33
7	IF Boljan	21	9	5	7	34	29	32
8	Qviding FIF	21	9	4	8	41	40	31
9	Onsala BK	21	6	6	9	29	35	24
10	Astorps FF	21	6	5	10	26	36	23
11	Torslanda IK	21	5	7	9	33	38	22
12	IK Kongahälla	21	5	6	10	29	40	21
13	Galtabäcks BK	21	4	5	12	28	35	17
14	BK Astrio	21	1	3	17	15	51	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hestrafors IF	IK Kongahälla
Dalstorps IF	2-2 D	1-4 L
Västra Frölunda IF	3-3 D	4-0 W
Astorps FF	2-1 W	0-2 L
BK Astrio	2-1 W	5-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hestrafors IF

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	IF Boljan Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	2-1	3-1	5	3	W
06/09	Lindome GIF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
29/08	Torslanda IK Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
22/08	Dalstorps IF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
14/08	Qviding FIF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	1-1	2-1	11	3	W
08/08	Västra Frölunda IF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	1-0	3-3	1	5	D
01/08	Astorps FF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	2-0	2-1	4	2	W
27/06	BK Astrio Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
17/06	IK Kongahälla Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	2-0	3-0	4	0	W
11/06	Dalstorps IF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	0-2	2-3	7	4	L

IK Kongahälla

WLLDLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	BK Astrio Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	2-1	5-1	–	–	W
04/09	Landvetter IS Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	0-2	4-3	3	4	W
28/08	Galtabäcks BK Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	1-2	1-3	16	2	L
22/08	Astorps FF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
14/08	Västra Frölunda IF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	2-0	4-0	8	3	W
09/08	Dalstorps IF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	0-1	1-4	5	3	L
31/07	Onsala BK Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
28/06	Jonsereds IF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	0-0	0-1	10	2	L
17/06	Hestrafors IF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	0-2	0-3	3	0	L
13/06	Galtabäcks BK Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	2-1	2-1	1	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hestrafors IF vs IK Kongahälla?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hestrafors IF win (54%). Probabilities: Hestrafors IF 54%, draw 22%, IK Kongahälla 24%.

How many goals are expected in Hestrafors IF vs IK Kongahälla?

The model expects 3.7 goals (Hestrafors IF 2.23 · IK Kongahälla 1.47), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Hestrafors IF vs IK Kongahälla?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.