Football · Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland · 26/09, 13:00

Prediction: Jonsereds IF vs Hestrafors IF

Team pages: Jonsereds IF · Hestrafors IF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.51Total

Jonsereds IF1.85

Hestrafors IF1.66

1X2

42% 23% 35%

Jonsereds IF Draw Hestrafors IF

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Jonsereds IF 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDWDWLWL

Hestrafors IF 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDWDWWWL

Head-to-head

Jonsereds IF 1–1–4 Hestrafors IF (6 last)

Hestrafors IF5-1Jonsereds IF
Jonsereds IF0-0Hestrafors IF
Hestrafors IF1-3Jonsereds IF
Hestrafors IF3-2Jonsereds IF
Jonsereds IF1-5Hestrafors IF
Hestrafors IF3-1Jonsereds IF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jonsereds IF 1506 · Hestrafors IF 1577

	Jonsereds IF	Draw	Hestrafors IF
Our model	42%	24%	34%
Market	42%	23%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.51 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hestrafors IF (rating 1506 vs 1577).
H2H favours Hestrafors IF: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jonsereds IF	Hestrafors IF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	2.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	1.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	70/30/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.6	2.5 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.1	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.90

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:05 +3’	2.10	3.90	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Jonsereds IF 1–1–4 Hestrafors IF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	Hestrafors IF	5-1 HT 3-1	Jonsereds IF
29/06/25 Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	Jonsereds IF	0-0 HT 0-0	Hestrafors IF
06/06/25 Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	Hestrafors IF	1-3 HT 1-0	Jonsereds IF
10/05/19 Sweden 3.div Nordvästra Götaland	Hestrafors IF	3-2 HT 0-1	Jonsereds IF
16/08/18 Sweden 3.div Nordvästra Götaland	Jonsereds IF	1-5 HT 1-2	Hestrafors IF
04/05/18 Sweden 3.div Nordvästra Götaland	Hestrafors IF	3-1 HT 1-1	Jonsereds IF

Standings · Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland · Vastra Gotaland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Landvetter IS	22	15	3	4	38	18	48
2	Dalstorps IF	22	12	6	4	43	24	42
3	Hestrafors IF	22	12	4	6	47	37	40
4	Jonsereds IF	22	11	5	6	38	36	38
5	Lindome GIF	22	10	4	8	40	34	34
6	IF Boljan	22	9	6	7	35	30	33
7	Västra Frölunda IF	22	9	6	7	42	38	33
8	Qviding FIF	22	9	4	9	42	42	31
9	Onsala BK	22	7	6	9	31	35	27
10	Astorps FF	22	7	5	10	28	36	26
11	Torslanda IK	22	6	7	9	36	39	25
12	IK Kongahälla	22	6	6	10	32	41	24
13	Galtabäcks BK	22	5	5	12	32	36	20
14	BK Astrio	22	1	3	18	15	53	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jonsereds IF	Hestrafors IF
Astorps FF	0-2 L	2-1 W
Torslanda IK	3-2 W	3-1 W
Qviding FIF	0-1 L	2-1 W
BK Astrio	4-2 W	2-1 W
Lindome GIF	3-2 W	2-0 W
IK Kongahälla	1-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hestrafors IF (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jonsereds IF

LWWDWDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Astorps FF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
12/09	Torslanda IK Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	1-1	3-2	2	0	W
06/09	Qviding FIF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
30/08	BK Astrio Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	2-1	4-2	2	3	W
23/08	Galtabäcks BK Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Onsala BK Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
09/08	Landvetter IS Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	1-1	2-2	1	5	D
31/07	Lindome GIF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	0-1	3-2	5	2	W
28/06	IK Kongahälla Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
17/06	Landvetter IS Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	0-0	0-1	6	3	L

Hestrafors IF

WWWDWDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	IK Kongahälla Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	0-0	1-3	4	5	L
11/09	IF Boljan Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	2-1	3-1	5	3	W
06/09	Lindome GIF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
29/08	Torslanda IK Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
22/08	Dalstorps IF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
14/08	Qviding FIF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	1-1	2-1	11	3	W
08/08	Västra Frölunda IF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	1-0	3-3	1	5	D
01/08	Astorps FF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	2-0	2-1	4	2	W
27/06	BK Astrio Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
17/06	IK Kongahälla Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland	2-0	3-0	4	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jonsereds IF vs Hestrafors IF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Jonsereds IF win (42%). Probabilities: Jonsereds IF 42%, draw 23%, Hestrafors IF 35%.

How many goals are expected in Jonsereds IF vs Hestrafors IF?

The model expects 3.51 goals (Jonsereds IF 1.85 · Hestrafors IF 1.66), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Jonsereds IF vs Hestrafors IF?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.