Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 01/08, 16:00

Prediction: IFK Stocksund vs Karlbergs BK

Team pages: IFK Stocksund · Karlbergs BK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.72Total

IFK Stocksund1.64

Karlbergs BK2.08

1X2

30% 23% 47%

IFK Stocksund Draw Karlbergs BK

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

IFK Stocksund 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LLDDLWDLLD

Karlbergs BK 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDLWLWWW

Head-to-head

IFK Stocksund 0–2–4 Karlbergs BK (6 last)

Karlbergs BK3-2IFK Stocksund
IFK Stocksund0-5Karlbergs BK
IFK Stocksund0-2Karlbergs BK
Karlbergs BK1-1IFK Stocksund
IFK Stocksund0-1Karlbergs BK
Karlbergs BK1-1IFK Stocksund

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IFK Stocksund 1440 · Karlbergs BK 1515

	IFK Stocksund	Draw	Karlbergs BK
Our model	30%	23%	47%
Market	30%	23%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.72 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Karlbergs BK (rating 1440 vs 1515).
H2H favours Karlbergs BK: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IFK Stocksund	Karlbergs BK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.8	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4	1.9 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.90

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
20:15 +1’	3.00	3.90	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · IFK Stocksund 0–2–4 Karlbergs BK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/09/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	Karlbergs BK	3-2 HT 1-0	IFK Stocksund
24/06/25 Sweden Cup Qualification	IFK Stocksund	0-5 HT 0-2	Karlbergs BK
25/04/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	IFK Stocksund	0-2 HT 0-2	Karlbergs BK
22/03/25 Club Friendly List	Karlbergs BK	1-1 HT 0-0	IFK Stocksund
13/09/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	IFK Stocksund	0-1 HT 0-0	Karlbergs BK
15/06/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Karlbergs BK	1-1 HT 0-0	IFK Stocksund

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hammarby TFF	14	10	2	2	38	11	32
2	IF Karlstad Fotboll	14	9	3	2	22	9	30
3	FC Arlanda	14	8	5	1	23	10	29
4	FC Stockholm Internazionale	14	8	3	3	28	14	27
5	Enkopings SK	14	8	1	5	24	23	25
6	FBK Karlstad	14	7	3	4	23	20	24
7	AFC Eskilstuna	14	5	4	5	23	24	19
8	Karlbergs BK	14	5	3	6	23	23	18
9	Umeå FC	14	4	4	6	20	24	16
10	FC Järfälla	14	4	3	7	21	27	15
11	Vasalunds IF	14	4	3	7	20	30	15
12	Assyriska Föreningen	14	3	5	6	22	29	14
13	Gefle IF	14	4	2	8	17	29	14
14	Sollentuna United FF	14	2	7	5	12	19	13
15	Piteå IF	14	2	3	9	16	32	9
16	IFK Stocksund	14	1	5	8	28	36	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IFK Stocksund	Karlbergs BK
Sollentuna United FF	1-1 D	2-1 W
FC Arlanda	0-1 L	1-1 D
FC Järfälla	6-1 W	1-3 L
FC Stockholm Internazionale	0-1 L	1-2 L
Piteå IF	2-3 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Karlbergs BK (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

IFK Stocksund

LLDDLWDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Sollentuna United FF Club Friendly List	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
27/06	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-2	1	5	L
18/06	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
13/06	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	3-3	7	5	D
08/06	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	3-1	6-1	1	7	W
04/06	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden Cup Qualification	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
31/05	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-2	4	3	D
23/05	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	3-3	8	5	D
17/05	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-2	2-3	5	2	L
14/05	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-1	4	4	L

Karlbergs BK

DLLDLWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/07	Sollentuna United FF Club Friendly List	1-1	2-1	2	0	W
24/06	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	3-1	6	4	W
18/06	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	3-0	4-0	3	5	W
14/06	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
10/06	Unik FK Sweden Cup Qualification	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
04/06	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-3	2	4	L
31/05	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
23/05	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-2	3	1	L
16/05	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	1-2	1-3	10	5	L
13/05	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-1	2	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IFK Stocksund vs Karlbergs BK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Karlbergs BK win (47%). Probabilities: IFK Stocksund 30%, draw 23%, Karlbergs BK 47%.

How many goals are expected in IFK Stocksund vs Karlbergs BK?

The model expects 3.72 goals (IFK Stocksund 1.64 · Karlbergs BK 2.08), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in IFK Stocksund vs Karlbergs BK?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.