Football · Brazil Serie A1 Women · 22/08, 23:00

Prediction: Flamengo (W) vs Atletico Mineiro (W)

Team pages: Flamengo (W) · Atletico Mineiro (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Flamengo (W)2.1

Atletico Mineiro (W)0.81

1X2

67% 21% 13%

Flamengo (W) Draw Atletico Mineiro (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Flamengo (W) 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWLDWWDLDW

Atletico Mineiro (W) 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWDLWLLDLW

Head-to-head

Flamengo (W) 3–0 Atletico Mineiro (W) (3 last)

Atletico Mineiro (W)2-3Flamengo (W)
Flamengo (W)1-0Atletico Mineiro (W)
Atletico Mineiro (W)0-1Flamengo (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Flamengo (W) 1534 · Atletico Mineiro (W) 1506

	Flamengo (W)	Draw	Atletico Mineiro (W)
Our model	66%	21%	12%
Market	67%	21%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Flamengo (W): 3-0-0.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Flamengo (W)	Atletico Mineiro (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	1.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 7	2.3 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.2	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.33

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)2.00

2 (+1.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Pinn 1.34
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.54
2	7.00 → 7.00	Pinn 7.88 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
04:55 +8’	1.33	4.33	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:10 +1’	1.33	4.64	8.16
20:23 +7’	1.33▼	4.65▲	8.20▲
07:35 +2’	1.35▲	4.51▼	7.81▼
09:49	1.34▼	4.54▲	7.88▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Flamengo (W) 3–0–0 Atletico Mineiro (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/24 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Atletico Mineiro (W)	2-3 HT 0-0	Flamengo (W)
18/03/23 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Flamengo (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Mineiro (W)
21/06/22 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Atletico Mineiro (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Flamengo (W)

Standings · Brazil Serie A1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Corinthians (W)	16	12	2	2	41	15	38
2	Sao Paulo (W)	16	12	2	2	30	11	38
3	Palmeiras (W)	16	10	5	1	32	11	35
4	Ferroviaria (W)	16	8	6	2	22	13	30
5	Bahia (W)	16	8	4	4	28	19	28
6	Cruzeiro (W)	16	7	6	3	30	19	27
7	Flamengo (W)	16	7	6	3	25	19	27
8	Fluminense RJ (W)	16	7	4	5	22	18	25
9	Gremio (W)	16	7	3	6	22	16	24
10	Internacional (W)	16	7	3	6	18	16	24
11	Bragantino (W)	16	7	2	7	28	25	23
12	Santos (W)	16	5	5	6	20	22	20
13	Atletico Mineiro (W)	16	4	4	8	16	21	16
14	Mixto EC (W)	16	2	6	8	10	26	12
15	EC Juventude (W)	16	2	4	10	7	20	10
16	America MG (W)	16	1	4	11	8	32	7
17	EC Vitoria (W)	16	1	4	11	14	43	7
18	Botafogo (W)	16	1	2	13	10	37	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Flamengo (W)	Atletico Mineiro (W)
Santos (W)	3-2 W	1-1 D
America MG (W)	1-1 D	2-0 W
Gremio (W)	2-2 D	2-0 W
Fluminense RJ (W)	1-0 W	1-1 D
Ferroviaria (W)	1-1 D	2-3 L
Bahia (W)	1-3 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Flamengo (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Flamengo (W)

LWLDWWDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	3-2	6	5	W
11/08	America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
03/08	Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	0-1	9	7	L
25/07	Gremio (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	2-2	6	5	D
23/05	Internacional (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
16/05	Fluminense RJ (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	1-0	13	6	W
12/05	Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-1	4	10	D
05/05	Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	1-2	2	3	L
25/04	EC Vitoria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	3-1	6	5	W
21/04	Bahia (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	1-3	8	6	L

Atletico Mineiro (W)

DWDLWLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Gremio (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	2-0	2	2	W
08/08	Bahia (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-3	0-3	8	2	L
01/08	Mixto EC (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
25/07	Bragantino (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-2	0-2	7	6	L
24/05	Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-1	2-3	4	6	L
16/05	America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	2-0	2-0	6	5	W
12/05	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-2	1-4	4	4	L
01/05	Fluminense RJ (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	1-1	2	7	D
28/04	Botafogo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	1-0	2-0	4	8	W
21/04	Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women	0-1	1-1	6	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Flamengo (W) vs Atletico Mineiro (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Flamengo (W) win (67%). Probabilities: Flamengo (W) 67%, draw 21%, Atletico Mineiro (W) 13%.

How many goals are expected in Flamengo (W) vs Atletico Mineiro (W)?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Flamengo (W) 2.1 · Atletico Mineiro (W) 0.81), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Flamengo (W) vs Atletico Mineiro (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.