Football · Australia New South Wales NPL Women · 22/08, 07:00

Prediction: NWS Spirit (W) vs Manly Utd (W)

Team pages: NWS Spirit (W) · Manly Utd (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

NWS Spirit (W)1.46

Manly Utd (W)1.52

1X2

36% 25% 39%

NWS Spirit (W) Draw Manly Utd (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

NWS Spirit (W) 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWDWWLL

Manly Utd (W) 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDLDWWLDWL

Head-to-head

NWS Spirit (W) 3–1–2 Manly Utd (W) (6 last)

Manly Utd (W)3-1NWS Spirit (W)
NWS Spirit (W)2-0Manly Utd (W)
Manly Utd (W)5-0NWS Spirit (W)
Manly Utd (W)1-3NWS Spirit (W)
NWS Spirit (W)2-2Manly Utd (W)
Manly Utd (W)0-1NWS Spirit (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NWS Spirit (W) 1510 · Manly Utd (W) 1494

	NWS Spirit (W)	Draw	Manly Utd (W)
Our model	35%	27%	38%
Market	37%	24%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours NWS Spirit (W): 3-1-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NWS Spirit (W)	Manly Utd (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.4	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.2	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	1.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.75

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 02:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.60▲	Pinn 2.78 ★
X	3.75 → 3.90▲	Bet365 3.90
2	2.50 → 2.15▼	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
06:37 +9’	2.25	3.75	2.50
23:48 +43’	2.45▲	3.75	2.30▼
01:54 +24’	2.60▲	3.90▲	2.15▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:29 +1’	2.78	3.49	2.09

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · NWS Spirit (W) 3–1–2 Manly Utd (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	Manly Utd (W)	3-1 HT 2-1	NWS Spirit (W)
19/07/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	NWS Spirit (W)	2-0 HT 0-0	Manly Utd (W)
21/04/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	Manly Utd (W)	5-0 HT 1-0	NWS Spirit (W)
23/06/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	Manly Utd (W)	1-3 HT 1-2	NWS Spirit (W)
23/03/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	NWS Spirit (W)	2-2 HT 2-1	Manly Utd (W)
13/08/23 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	Manly Utd (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	NWS Spirit (W)

Standings · Australia New South Wales NPL Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bulls FC Academy (W)	24	16	7	1	62	24	55
2	University NSW (W)	24	15	8	1	46	18	53
3	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W)	24	15	4	5	51	28	49
4	APIA Leichardt (W)	24	15	4	5	60	32	49
5	Northern Tigers FC (W)	24	10	6	8	40	32	36
6	Manly Utd (W)	25	8	9	8	39	33	33
7	Sydney Olympic FC (W)	24	10	3	11	42	39	33
8	Sydney University (W)	24	8	7	9	47	43	31
9	Macarthur Rams (W)	24	8	5	11	35	40	29
10	Hills United FC (W)	24	8	3	13	31	32	27
11	NWS Spirit (W)	25	8	2	15	33	76	26
12	Gladesville Ravens (W)	24	6	5	13	31	49	23
13	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	24	3	7	14	19	44	16
14	Western City Rangers (W)	24	3	2	19	27	73	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NWS Spirit (W)	Manly Utd (W)
University NSW (W)	0-1 L	2-2 D
Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W)	0-2 L	1-2 L
Hills United FC (W)	1-0 W	2-1 W
Illawarra Stingrays (W)	1-1 D	3-0 W
APIA Leichardt (W)	1-2 L	1-2 L
Northern Tigers FC (W)	2-1 W	1-1 D
Bulls FC Academy (W)	4-4 D	0-1 L
Western City Rangers (W)	4-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NWS Spirit (W)

WDWLWDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
08/08	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
02/08	Sydney University (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-0	2-1	3	2	W
25/07	Hills United FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
19/07	Illawarra Stingrays (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
11/07	Macarthur Rams (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	4-2	8	2	W
05/07	APIA Leichardt (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
27/06	Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
21/06	Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-2	4-4	3	3	D
13/06	Western City Rangers (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	3-0	4-0	7	2	W

Manly Utd (W)

DDLDWWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
09/08	Illawarra Stingrays (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-0	3-0	7	0	W
02/08	University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-1	2-2	3	0	D
26/07	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
19/07	Hills United FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
12/07	Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	1-0	6	0	W
05/07	Western City Rangers (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-1	2	1	D
28/06	APIA Leichardt (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	1-2	3	0	L
20/06	Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
14/06	Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	2-2	3	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NWS Spirit (W) vs Manly Utd (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Manly Utd (W) win (39%). Probabilities: NWS Spirit (W) 36%, draw 25%, Manly Utd (W) 39%.

How many goals are expected in NWS Spirit (W) vs Manly Utd (W)?

The model expects 2.98 goals (NWS Spirit (W) 1.46 · Manly Utd (W) 1.52), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in NWS Spirit (W) vs Manly Utd (W)?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.