Football · Australia New South Wales NPL Women · 29/08, 09:00

Prediction: University NSW (W) vs Hills United FC (W)

Team pages: University NSW (W) · Hills United FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

University NSW (W)1.75

Hills United FC (W)0.85

1X2

59% 23% 18%

University NSW (W) Draw Hills United FC (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

University NSW (W) 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WLDDDDDWWW

Hills United FC (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLDWWL

Head-to-head

University NSW (W) 1–0 Hills United FC (W) (1 last)

Hills United FC (W)0-2University NSW (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · University NSW (W) 1564 · Hills United FC (W) 1480

	University NSW (W)	Draw	Hills United FC (W)
Our model	58%	26%	17%
Market	59%	22%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours University NSW (W) (rating 1564 vs 1480).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	University NSW (W)	Hills United FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.8	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4.9	1.8 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.1 / 0	1.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.10

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.50▼	Bet365 1.50
X	4.00 → 4.10▲	Pinn 4.37 ★
2	4.00 → 4.75▲	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
06:53 +16’	1.61	4.00	4.00
01:54 +4’	1.50▼	4.10▲	4.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:37 +1’	1.47	4.37	4.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · University NSW (W) 1–0–0 Hills United FC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	Hills United FC (W)	0-2 HT 0-0	University NSW (W)

Standings · Australia New South Wales NPL Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bulls FC Academy (W)	25	17	7	1	64	24	58
2	University NSW (W)	25	16	8	1	48	19	56
3	APIA Leichardt (W)	25	16	4	5	64	34	52
4	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W)	25	15	4	6	53	32	49
5	Northern Tigers FC (W)	25	10	6	9	40	34	36
6	Sydney Olympic FC (W)	25	11	3	11	44	39	36
7	Manly Utd (W)	25	8	9	8	39	33	33
8	Macarthur Rams (W)	25	9	5	11	38	42	32
9	Sydney University (W)	25	8	7	10	48	45	31
10	Hills United FC (W)	25	8	3	14	32	34	27
11	Gladesville Ravens (W)	26	7	5	14	34	51	26
12	NWS Spirit (W)	26	8	2	16	33	79	26
13	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	25	4	7	14	21	45	19
14	Western City Rangers (W)	25	3	2	20	29	76	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	University NSW (W)	Hills United FC (W)
Sydney University (W)	2-1 W	3-0 W
NWS Spirit (W)	1-0 W	0-1 L
Macarthur Rams (W)	1-0 W	1-3 L
Manly Utd (W)	2-2 D	1-2 L
Gladesville Ravens (W)	2-2 D	4-0 W
Sydney Olympic FC (W)	0-0 D	1-0 W
Northern Tigers FC (W)	0-0 D	1-1 D
Illawarra Stingrays (W)	3-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 4 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: University NSW (W) (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

University NSW (W)

WLDDDDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Sydney University (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	2-1	4	0	W
15/08	NWS Spirit (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
09/08	Macarthur Rams (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	1-0	7	2	W
02/08	Manly Utd (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-1	2-2	6	0	D
25/07	APIA Leichardt (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-1	1-1	5	1	D
19/07	Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-1	2-2	6	0	D
11/07	Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
04/07	Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
28/06	Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
21/06	Illawarra Stingrays (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-1	3-1	7	0	W

Hills United FC (W)

LWLWLLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Illawarra Stingrays (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-2	4	2	L
16/08	Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	3-0	4-0	5	1	W
09/08	Western City Rangers (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-0	3-0	8	1	W
01/08	Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	1-1	5	1	D
25/07	NWS Spirit (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
19/07	Manly Utd (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	1-2	10	1	L
12/07	Sydney University (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-0	3-0	4	1	W
05/07	Macarthur Rams (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-2	1-3	5	0	L
28/06	Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
21/06	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-1	2-3	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in University NSW (W) vs Hills United FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a University NSW (W) win (59%). Probabilities: University NSW (W) 59%, draw 23%, Hills United FC (W) 18%.

How many goals are expected in University NSW (W) vs Hills United FC (W)?

The model expects 2.6 goals (University NSW (W) 1.75 · Hills United FC (W) 0.85), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in University NSW (W) vs Hills United FC (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.