Football · Australia New South Wales NPL Women · 30/08, 07:00

Prediction: Illawarra Stingrays (W) vs Macarthur Rams (W)

Team pages: Illawarra Stingrays (W) · Macarthur Rams (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

Illawarra Stingrays (W)1.31

Macarthur Rams (W)1.81

1X2

27% 24% 49%

Illawarra Stingrays (W) Draw Macarthur Rams (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Illawarra Stingrays (W) 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWDLDLLLDW

Macarthur Rams (W) 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWDLWLDW

Head-to-head

Illawarra Stingrays (W) 3–1–2 Macarthur Rams (W) (6 last)

Macarthur Rams (W)2-1Illawarra Stingrays (W)
Macarthur Rams (W)1-4Illawarra Stingrays (W)
Illawarra Stingrays (W)1-0Macarthur Rams (W)
Macarthur Rams (W)0-1Illawarra Stingrays (W)
Illawarra Stingrays (W)2-3Macarthur Rams (W)
Illawarra Stingrays (W)0-0Macarthur Rams (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Illawarra Stingrays (W) 1453 · Macarthur Rams (W) 1505

	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	Draw	Macarthur Rams (W)
Our model	27%	25%	48%
Market	28%	24%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Macarthur Rams (W) (rating 1453 vs 1505).
H2H favours Illawarra Stingrays (W): 3-1-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	Macarthur Rams (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2	1.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.1	1.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.1	2.2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	1.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.80

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
06:21 +18’	3.25	3.80	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Illawarra Stingrays (W) 3–1–2 Macarthur Rams (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	Macarthur Rams (W)	2-1 HT 0-0	Illawarra Stingrays (W)
03/08/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	Macarthur Rams (W)	1-4 HT 0-3	Illawarra Stingrays (W)
04/05/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Macarthur Rams (W)
02/06/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	Macarthur Rams (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Illawarra Stingrays (W)
03/03/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	2-3 HT 2-2	Macarthur Rams (W)
27/08/23 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Macarthur Rams (W)

Standings · Australia New South Wales NPL Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bulls FC Academy (W)	25	17	7	1	64	24	58
2	University NSW (W)	25	16	8	1	48	19	56
3	APIA Leichardt (W)	25	16	4	5	64	34	52
4	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W)	25	15	4	6	53	32	49
5	Northern Tigers FC (W)	25	10	6	9	40	34	36
6	Sydney Olympic FC (W)	25	11	3	11	44	39	36
7	Manly Utd (W)	25	8	9	8	39	33	33
8	Macarthur Rams (W)	25	9	5	11	38	42	32
9	Sydney University (W)	25	8	7	10	48	45	31
10	Hills United FC (W)	25	8	3	14	32	34	27
11	Gladesville Ravens (W)	26	7	5	14	34	51	26
12	NWS Spirit (W)	26	8	2	16	33	79	26
13	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	25	4	7	14	21	45	19
14	Western City Rangers (W)	25	3	2	20	29	76	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	Macarthur Rams (W)
Hills United FC (W)	2-1 W	3-1 W
APIA Leichardt (W)	1-1 D	1-2 L
Sydney Olympic FC (W)	0-1 L	0-3 L
Western City Rangers (W)	1-6 L	3-2 W
NWS Spirit (W)	1-1 D	2-4 L
Sydney University (W)	0-0 D	2-2 D
Gladesville Ravens (W)	3-0 W	5-0 W
University NSW (W)	1-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Macarthur Rams (W) (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Illawarra Stingrays (W)

LWDLDLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Hills United FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	2-1	1	2	W
16/08	APIA Leichardt (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
09/08	Manly Utd (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-2	0-3	2	0	L
02/08	Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
26/07	Western City Rangers (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-3	1-6	4	2	L
19/07	NWS Spirit (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
12/07	Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-3	1-4	1	3	L
05/07	Sydney University (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
28/06	Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	3-0	8	3	W
21/06	University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-2	1-3	5	0	L

Macarthur Rams (W)

LWLWDLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Western City Rangers (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-1	3-2	4	0	W
15/08	Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	1-1	3	0	D
09/08	University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
02/08	Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	5-0	5-0	8	4	W
26/07	Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	0-3	3	1	L
19/07	Sydney University (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-0	2-2	6	1	D
15/07	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
11/07	NWS Spirit (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	2-4	4	2	L
05/07	Hills United FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-0	3-1	4	0	W
21/06	APIA Leichardt (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-2	1-2	2	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Illawarra Stingrays (W) vs Macarthur Rams (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Macarthur Rams (W) win (49%). Probabilities: Illawarra Stingrays (W) 27%, draw 24%, Macarthur Rams (W) 49%.

How many goals are expected in Illawarra Stingrays (W) vs Macarthur Rams (W)?

The model expects 3.11 goals (Illawarra Stingrays (W) 1.31 · Macarthur Rams (W) 1.81), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Illawarra Stingrays (W) vs Macarthur Rams (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.