Football · Australia New South Wales NPL Women · 29/08, 10:30

Prediction: Northern Tigers FC (W) vs APIA Leichardt (W)

Team pages: Northern Tigers FC (W) · APIA Leichardt (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.44Total

Northern Tigers FC (W)1.35

APIA Leichardt (W)2.09

1X2

24% 22% 54%

Northern Tigers FC (W) Draw APIA Leichardt (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Northern Tigers FC (W) 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DLDWWDDWDL

APIA Leichardt (W) 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWLDDWDW

Head-to-head

Northern Tigers FC (W) 1–1–4 APIA Leichardt (W) (6 last)

APIA Leichardt (W)1-4Northern Tigers FC (W)
APIA Leichardt (W)2-0Northern Tigers FC (W)
Northern Tigers FC (W)1-3APIA Leichardt (W)
Northern Tigers FC (W)1-3APIA Leichardt (W)
APIA Leichardt (W)2-2Northern Tigers FC (W)
Northern Tigers FC (W)0-2APIA Leichardt (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Northern Tigers FC (W) 1530 · APIA Leichardt (W) 1546

	Northern Tigers FC (W)	Draw	APIA Leichardt (W)
Our model	24%	23%	54%
Market	24%	21%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.44 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours APIA Leichardt (W): 4-1-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Northern Tigers FC (W)	APIA Leichardt (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.2	2.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	1.1 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.5	2.9 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.1	2.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.70

X4.20

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.80

2 (-1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 09:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 3.70▼	Pinn 4.00 ★
X	4.10 → 4.20▲	Bet365 4.20
2	1.60 → 1.65▲	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
22:35 +7’	4.00	4.10	1.60
04:11 +10’	3.75▼	4.00▼	1.65▲
09:39 +11’	3.70▼	4.20▲	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:11	3.91	3.92	1.63
09:49	4.00▲	4.14▲	1.61▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Northern Tigers FC (W) 1–1–4 APIA Leichardt (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	APIA Leichardt (W)	1-4 HT 0-1	Northern Tigers FC (W)
10/08/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	APIA Leichardt (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Northern Tigers FC (W)
10/05/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	Northern Tigers FC (W)	1-3 HT 1-0	APIA Leichardt (W)
06/07/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	Northern Tigers FC (W)	1-3 HT 1-2	APIA Leichardt (W)
07/04/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	APIA Leichardt (W)	2-2 HT 2-1	Northern Tigers FC (W)
27/08/23 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	Northern Tigers FC (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	APIA Leichardt (W)

Standings · Australia New South Wales NPL Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bulls FC Academy (W)	25	17	7	1	64	24	58
2	University NSW (W)	25	16	8	1	48	19	56
3	APIA Leichardt (W)	25	16	4	5	64	34	52
4	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W)	25	15	4	6	53	32	49
5	Northern Tigers FC (W)	25	10	6	9	40	34	36
6	Sydney Olympic FC (W)	25	11	3	11	44	39	36
7	Manly Utd (W)	25	8	9	8	39	33	33
8	Macarthur Rams (W)	25	9	5	11	38	42	32
9	Sydney University (W)	25	8	7	10	48	45	31
10	Hills United FC (W)	25	8	3	14	32	34	27
11	Gladesville Ravens (W)	26	7	5	14	34	51	26
12	NWS Spirit (W)	26	8	2	16	33	79	26
13	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	25	4	7	14	21	45	19
14	Western City Rangers (W)	25	3	2	20	29	76	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Northern Tigers FC (W)	APIA Leichardt (W)
Bulls FC Academy (W)	0-2 L	2-2 D
Macarthur Rams (W)	1-1 D	2-1 W
Sydney Olympic FC (W)	2-1 W	1-2 L
Western City Rangers (W)	3-1 W	5-1 W
Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W)	2-1 W	4-2 W
University NSW (W)	0-0 D	1-1 D
NWS Spirit (W)	1-2 L	2-1 W
Manly Utd (W)	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: APIA Leichardt (W) (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Northern Tigers FC (W)

DLDWWDDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	0-2	4	0	L
15/08	Macarthur Rams (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	1-1	1	0	D
09/08	Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
01/08	Hills United FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	1-1	5	1	D
26/07	Sydney University (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-2	2-2	2	0	D
18/07	Western City Rangers (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	3-1	2	9	W
12/07	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
04/07	University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
27/06	NWS Spirit (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
20/06	Manly Utd (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-1	5	6	D

APIA Leichardt (W)

WWWWLDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-2	4-2	7	2	W
16/08	Illawarra Stingrays (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	1-1	11	2	D
09/08	Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-2	4-2	2	4	W
02/08	Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-2	2-2	5	2	D
25/07	University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-1	1-1	7	1	D
19/07	Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-1	1-2	7	2	L
11/07	Western City Rangers (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	3-1	5-1	5	4	W
05/07	NWS Spirit (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
28/06	Manly Utd (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	2-1	5	0	W
21/06	Macarthur Rams (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-0	2-1	1	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Northern Tigers FC (W) vs APIA Leichardt (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an APIA Leichardt (W) win (54%). Probabilities: Northern Tigers FC (W) 24%, draw 22%, APIA Leichardt (W) 54%.

How many goals are expected in Northern Tigers FC (W) vs APIA Leichardt (W)?

The model expects 3.44 goals (Northern Tigers FC (W) 1.35 · APIA Leichardt (W) 2.09), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Northern Tigers FC (W) vs APIA Leichardt (W)?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.