Football · Australia New South Wales NPL Women · 16/08, 07:00

Prediction: Illawarra Stingrays (W) vs APIA Leichardt (W)

Team pages: Illawarra Stingrays (W) · APIA Leichardt (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.62Total

Illawarra Stingrays (W)1.06

APIA Leichardt (W)2.56

1X2

13% 17% 69%

Illawarra Stingrays (W) Draw APIA Leichardt (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Illawarra Stingrays (W) 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWDLDLLL

APIA Leichardt (W) 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWLDDW

Head-to-head

Illawarra Stingrays (W) 1–2–3 APIA Leichardt (W) (6 last)

APIA Leichardt (W)5-1Illawarra Stingrays (W)
Illawarra Stingrays (W)2-2APIA Leichardt (W)
APIA Leichardt (W)0-0Illawarra Stingrays (W)
APIA Leichardt (W)1-0Illawarra Stingrays (W)
Illawarra Stingrays (W)3-0APIA Leichardt (W)
APIA Leichardt (W)5-2Illawarra Stingrays (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Illawarra Stingrays (W) 1408 · APIA Leichardt (W) 1587

	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	Draw	APIA Leichardt (W)
Our model	13%	18%	69%
Market	14%	16%	70%

Estimated total (ours) 3.62 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours APIA Leichardt (W) (rating 1408 vs 1587).
H2H favours APIA Leichardt (W): 3-2-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	APIA Leichardt (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.2	2.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	1.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.9	2.2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

16.50

X5.50

21.28

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.95

2 (-1.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
06:41 +3’	6.50	5.50	1.28

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Illawarra Stingrays (W) 1–2–3 APIA Leichardt (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	APIA Leichardt (W)	5-1 HT 2-0	Illawarra Stingrays (W)
24/08/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	2-2 HT 1-1	APIA Leichardt (W)
25/05/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	APIA Leichardt (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Illawarra Stingrays (W)
31/08/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	APIA Leichardt (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Illawarra Stingrays (W)
28/07/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	APIA Leichardt (W)
28/04/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	APIA Leichardt (W)	5-2 HT 1-0	Illawarra Stingrays (W)

Standings · Australia New South Wales NPL Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bulls FC Academy (W)	23	15	7	1	61	24	52
2	University NSW (W)	23	14	8	1	45	18	50
3	APIA Leichardt (W)	23	15	3	5	59	31	48
4	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W)	23	14	4	5	50	28	46
5	Northern Tigers FC (W)	23	10	5	8	39	31	35
6	Manly Utd (W)	23	8	9	6	38	29	33
7	Sydney University (W)	23	8	7	8	47	42	31
8	Sydney Olympic FC (W)	23	9	3	11	39	38	30
9	Macarthur Rams (W)	23	8	4	11	34	39	28
10	Hills United FC (W)	23	7	3	13	27	32	24
11	NWS Spirit (W)	23	7	2	14	30	74	23
12	Gladesville Ravens (W)	23	6	5	12	31	45	23
13	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	23	3	6	14	18	43	15
14	Western City Rangers (W)	23	3	2	18	26	70	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	APIA Leichardt (W)
Manly Utd (W)	0-3 L	2-1 W
Sydney Olympic FC (W)	0-1 L	1-2 L
Western City Rangers (W)	1-6 L	5-1 W
NWS Spirit (W)	1-1 D	2-1 W
Bulls FC Academy (W)	1-4 L	2-2 D
Sydney University (W)	0-0 D	3-0 W
Gladesville Ravens (W)	3-0 W	4-2 W
University NSW (W)	1-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: APIA Leichardt (W) (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Illawarra Stingrays (W)

LLLWDLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Manly Utd (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-2	0-3	2	0	L
02/08	Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
26/07	Western City Rangers (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-3	1-6	4	2	L
19/07	NWS Spirit (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
12/07	Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-3	1-4	1	3	L
05/07	Sydney University (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
28/06	Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	3-0	8	3	W
21/06	University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-2	1-3	5	0	L
14/06	Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	0-3	4	2	L
07/06	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	0-1	0	1	L

APIA Leichardt (W)

WWWWWWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-2	4-2	2	4	W
02/08	Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-2	2-2	5	2	D
25/07	University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-1	1-1	7	1	D
19/07	Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-1	1-2	7	2	L
11/07	Western City Rangers (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	3-1	5-1	5	4	W
05/07	NWS Spirit (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
28/06	Manly Utd (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	2-1	5	0	W
21/06	Macarthur Rams (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-0	2-1	1	1	W
14/06	Hills United FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-1	4-1	6	4	W
07/06	Sydney University (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	3-0	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Illawarra Stingrays (W) vs APIA Leichardt (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an APIA Leichardt (W) win (69%). Probabilities: Illawarra Stingrays (W) 13%, draw 17%, APIA Leichardt (W) 69%.

How many goals are expected in Illawarra Stingrays (W) vs APIA Leichardt (W)?

The model expects 3.62 goals (Illawarra Stingrays (W) 1.06 · APIA Leichardt (W) 2.56), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Illawarra Stingrays (W) vs APIA Leichardt (W)?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.