Football · Australia New South Wales NPL Women · 25/07, 07:00

Prediction: NWS Spirit (W) vs Hills United FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.72Total

NWS Spirit (W)2.09

Hills United FC (W)1.63

1X2

47% 23% 29%

NWS Spirit (W) Draw Hills United FC (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

NWS Spirit (W) 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Hills United FC (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

NWS Spirit (W) 0–1 Hills United FC (W) (1 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NWS Spirit (W) 1516 · Hills United FC (W) 1465

	NWS Spirit (W)	Draw	Hills United FC (W)
Our model	48%	23%	30%
Market	47%	24%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.72 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NWS Spirit (W) (rating 1516 vs 1465).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NWS Spirit (W)	Hills United FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 2.2	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.1	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.7	2.1 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	1.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.75

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
04:01 +8’	1.91	3.75	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NWS Spirit (W) 0–0–1 Hills United FC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	Hills United FC (W)	5-0 HT 2-0	NWS Spirit (W)

Standings · Australia New South Wales NPL Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bulls FC Academy (W)	20	15	4	1	57	20	49
2	University NSW (W)	20	13	6	1	41	15	45
3	APIA Leichardt (W)	20	14	1	5	52	26	43
4	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W)	20	11	4	5	37	26	37
5	Northern Tigers FC (W)	20	9	3	8	34	27	30
6	Manly Utd (W)	20	7	8	5	32	25	29
7	Sydney University (W)	20	8	5	7	43	37	29
8	Macarthur Rams (W)	20	7	4	9	29	35	25
9	Sydney Olympic FC (W)	20	7	3	10	34	36	24
10	Gladesville Ravens (W)	20	6	4	10	28	35	22
11	Hills United FC (W)	20	6	2	12	23	30	20
12	NWS Spirit (W)	20	5	2	13	27	71	17
13	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	20	3	6	11	17	33	15
14	Western City Rangers (W)	20	2	2	16	19	57	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NWS Spirit (W)	Hills United FC (W)
Illawarra Stingrays (W)	1-1 D	0-0 D
Macarthur Rams (W)	4-2 W	1-3 L
APIA Leichardt (W)	1-2 L	1-4 L
Bulls FC Academy (W)	4-4 D	1-2 L
Sydney Olympic FC (W)	1-0 W	1-0 W
Gladesville Ravens (W)	3-1 W	1-0 W
Manly Utd (W)	1-3 L	1-2 L
University NSW (W)	3-8 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: NWS Spirit (W) (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NWS Spirit (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Illawarra Stingrays (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
11/07	Macarthur Rams (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	4-2	8	2	W
05/07	APIA Leichardt (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
27/06	Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
21/06	Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-2	4-4	3	3	D
13/06	Western City Rangers (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	3-0	4-0	7	2	W
07/06	Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
30/05	Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-0	3-1	10	3	W
22/05	Manly Utd (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-2	1-3	1	3	L
16/05	University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-5	3-8	3	1	L

Hills United FC (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Manly Utd (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	1-2	10	1	L
12/07	Sydney University (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-0	3-0	4	1	W
05/07	Macarthur Rams (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-2	1-3	5	0	L
28/06	Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
21/06	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-1	2-3	4	2	L
14/06	APIA Leichardt (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-2	1-4	4	4	L
07/06	Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-2	4	3	L
31/05	University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	0-2	0	0	L
24/05	Illawarra Stingrays (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
17/05	Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	1-0	2	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NWS Spirit (W) vs Hills United FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NWS Spirit (W) win (47%). Probabilities: NWS Spirit (W) 47%, draw 23%, Hills United FC (W) 29%.

How many goals are expected in NWS Spirit (W) vs Hills United FC (W)?

The model expects 3.72 goals (NWS Spirit (W) 2.09 · Hills United FC (W) 1.63), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in NWS Spirit (W) vs Hills United FC (W)?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.