Football · Australia New South Wales NPL Women · 19/07, 07:00

Prediction: Illawarra Stingrays (W) vs NWS Spirit (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.5Total

Illawarra Stingrays (W)1.63

NWS Spirit (W)1.87

1X2

33% 24% 43%

Illawarra Stingrays (W) Draw NWS Spirit (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Illawarra Stingrays (W) 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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NWS Spirit (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Illawarra Stingrays (W) 3–3–0 NWS Spirit (W) (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Illawarra Stingrays (W) 1446 · NWS Spirit (W) 1505

	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	Draw	NWS Spirit (W)
Our model	33%	24%	43%
Market	33%	24%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.5 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NWS Spirit (W) (rating 1446 vs 1505).
H2H favours Illawarra Stingrays (W): 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	NWS Spirit (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.1	2.3 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.8 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.8	3 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.1

Head-to-head (H2H) · Illawarra Stingrays (W) 3–3–0 NWS Spirit (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	NWS Spirit (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	Illawarra Stingrays (W)
29/06/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	NWS Spirit (W)
29/03/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	NWS Spirit (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Illawarra Stingrays (W)
18/08/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	NWS Spirit (W)
18/05/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	NWS Spirit (W)	1-2 HT 1-0	Illawarra Stingrays (W)
19/08/23 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	NWS Spirit (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	Illawarra Stingrays (W)

Standings · Australia New South Wales NPL Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bulls FC Academy (W)	19	14	4	1	52	17	46
2	University NSW (W)	19	13	5	1	39	13	44
3	APIA Leichardt (W)	19	14	1	4	51	24	43
4	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W)	19	11	4	4	34	21	37
5	Sydney University (W)	19	8	4	7	41	35	28
6	Northern Tigers FC (W)	19	8	3	8	31	26	27
7	Manly Utd (W)	19	6	8	5	30	24	26
8	Macarthur Rams (W)	19	7	3	9	27	33	24
9	Sydney Olympic FC (W)	19	6	3	10	32	35	21
10	Gladesville Ravens (W)	19	6	3	10	26	33	21
11	Hills United FC (W)	19	6	2	11	22	28	20
12	NWS Spirit (W)	19	5	1	13	26	70	16
13	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	19	3	5	11	16	32	14
14	Western City Rangers (W)	19	2	2	15	18	54	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	NWS Spirit (W)
Bulls FC Academy (W)	1-4 L	4-4 D
Gladesville Ravens (W)	3-0 W	3-1 W
University NSW (W)	1-3 L	3-8 L
Northern Tigers FC (W)	0-3 L	2-1 W
Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W)	0-1 L	0-5 L
Macarthur Rams (W)	1-2 L	4-2 W
APIA Leichardt (W)	1-5 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 6 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: NWS Spirit (W) (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Illawarra Stingrays (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-3	1-4	1	3	L
05/07	Sydney University (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
28/06	Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	3-0	8	3	W
21/06	University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-2	1-3	5	0	L
14/06	Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	0-3	4	2	L
07/06	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	0-1	0	1	L
31/05	Macarthur Rams (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-2	4	3	L
26/05	Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales Cup Women	0-1	0-3	2	0	L
24/05	Hills United FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
17/05	APIA Leichardt (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-2	1-5	2	2	L

NWS Spirit (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	Macarthur Rams (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	4-2	8	2	W
05/07	APIA Leichardt (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
27/06	Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
21/06	Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-2	4-4	3	3	D
13/06	Western City Rangers (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	3-0	4-0	7	2	W
07/06	Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
30/05	Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-0	3-1	10	3	W
22/05	Manly Utd (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-2	1-3	1	3	L
16/05	University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-5	3-8	3	1	L
10/05	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-2	0-5	1	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Illawarra Stingrays (W) vs NWS Spirit (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NWS Spirit (W) win (43%). Probabilities: Illawarra Stingrays (W) 33%, draw 24%, NWS Spirit (W) 43%.

How many goals are expected in Illawarra Stingrays (W) vs NWS Spirit (W)?

The model expects 3.5 goals (Illawarra Stingrays (W) 1.63 · NWS Spirit (W) 1.87), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Illawarra Stingrays (W) vs NWS Spirit (W)?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.