Football · Australia New South Wales NPL Women · 19/07, 09:30

Prediction: Hills United FC (W) vs Manly Utd (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Hills United FC (W)1.17

Manly Utd (W)1.45

1X2

30% 28% 43%

Hills United FC (W) Draw Manly Utd (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Hills United FC (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWDLLLLWLW

Manly Utd (W) 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WWDDDDLDWL

Head-to-head

Hills United FC (W) 0–1 Manly Utd (W) (1 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hills United FC (W) 1477 · Manly Utd (W) 1517

	Hills United FC (W)	Draw	Manly Utd (W)
Our model	29%	28%	42%
Market	30%	27%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Manly Utd (W) (rating 1477 vs 1517).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hills United FC (W)	Manly Utd (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.1	1.9 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.5 / 0.1	1.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.40

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.4

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.26 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
04:01 +1’	3.10	3.40	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:03	2.69	3.28	2.33
00:01 +1’	2.71▲	3.30▲	2.31▼
04:02	2.76▲	3.32▲	2.26▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hills United FC (W) 0–0–1 Manly Utd (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	Manly Utd (W)	2-0 HT 0-0	Hills United FC (W)

Standings · Australia New South Wales NPL Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bulls FC Academy (W)	19	14	4	1	52	17	46
2	University NSW (W)	19	13	5	1	39	13	44
3	APIA Leichardt (W)	19	14	1	4	51	24	43
4	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W)	19	11	4	4	34	21	37
5	Northern Tigers FC (W)	20	9	3	8	34	27	30
6	Sydney University (W)	19	8	4	7	41	35	28
7	Manly Utd (W)	19	6	8	5	30	24	26
8	Macarthur Rams (W)	19	7	3	9	27	33	24
9	Sydney Olympic FC (W)	19	6	3	10	32	35	21
10	Gladesville Ravens (W)	19	6	3	10	26	33	21
11	Hills United FC (W)	19	6	2	11	22	28	20
12	NWS Spirit (W)	19	5	1	13	26	70	16
13	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	19	3	5	11	16	32	14
14	Western City Rangers (W)	20	2	2	16	19	57	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hills United FC (W)	Manly Utd (W)
Sydney University (W)	3-0 W	1-1 D
Macarthur Rams (W)	1-3 L	1-1 D
Sydney Olympic FC (W)	1-0 W	2-2 D
Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W)	2-3 L	2-0 W
APIA Leichardt (W)	1-4 L	1-2 L
University NSW (W)	0-2 L	0-1 L
Gladesville Ravens (W)	1-0 W	1-0 W
Western City Rangers (W)	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Manly Utd (W) (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Hills United FC (W)

WWDLLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	Sydney University (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-0	3-0	4	1	W
05/07	Macarthur Rams (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-2	1-3	5	0	L
28/06	Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
21/06	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-1	2-3	4	2	L
14/06	APIA Leichardt (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-2	1-4	4	4	L
07/06	Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-2	4	3	L
31/05	University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	0-2	0	0	L
24/05	Illawarra Stingrays (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
17/05	Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	1-0	2	0	W
10/05	Western City Rangers (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	1-0	8	2	W

Manly Utd (W)

WWDDDDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/07	University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales Cup Women	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
12/07	Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	1-0	6	0	W
05/07	Western City Rangers (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-1	2	1	D
28/06	APIA Leichardt (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	1-2	3	0	L
20/06	Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
14/06	Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	2-2	3	0	D
07/06	Macarthur Rams (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	1-1	2	0	D
31/05	Sydney University (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
27/05	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales Cup Women	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
22/05	NWS Spirit (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-1	3-1	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hills United FC (W) vs Manly Utd (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Manly Utd (W) win (43%). Probabilities: Hills United FC (W) 30%, draw 28%, Manly Utd (W) 43%.

How many goals are expected in Hills United FC (W) vs Manly Utd (W)?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Hills United FC (W) 1.17 · Manly Utd (W) 1.45), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hills United FC (W) vs Manly Utd (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.