Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 1 · 31/07, 12:30

Prediction: Northcote City vs Eltham Redbacks

Team pages: Northcote City · Eltham Redbacks

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.56Total

Northcote City2.08

Eltham Redbacks1.48

1X2

51% 22% 27%

Northcote City Draw Eltham Redbacks

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Northcote City 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Eltham Redbacks 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Northcote City 0–1–0 Eltham Redbacks (1 last)

Eltham Redbacks1-1Northcote City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Northcote City 1521 · Eltham Redbacks 1475

	Northcote City	Draw	Eltham Redbacks
Our model	51%	23%	27%
Market	51%	22%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Northcote City (rating 1521 vs 1475).
High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Northcote City	Eltham Redbacks
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.3	2 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	1.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.7	2.9 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.75

X4.10

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
07:51 +15’	1.75	4.10	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Northcote City 0–1–0 Eltham Redbacks

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1	Eltham Redbacks	1-1 HT 0-1	Northcote City

Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Melbourne Knights	22	15	2	5	42	17	47
2	Brunswick Juventus	22	15	0	7	44	30	45
3	Northcote City	22	13	4	5	40	24	43
4	Melbourne Victory NPL	22	11	4	7	51	35	37
5	Bulleen Lions	22	10	6	6	40	30	36
6	Eltham Redbacks	22	9	5	8	49	38	32
7	FC Melbourne Srbija	21	10	2	9	26	23	32
8	Manningham United Blues	22	9	3	10	38	46	30
9	North Geelong	21	9	1	11	33	42	28
10	Brunswick City	22	8	3	11	41	44	27
11	Western United FC NPL	22	8	1	13	44	59	25
12	Langwarrin	22	6	5	11	37	49	23
13	North Sunshine Eagles	22	5	4	13	29	38	19
14	Port Melbourne SC	22	3	4	15	12	51	13

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Northcote City	Eltham Redbacks
Melbourne Knights	0-1 L	0-4 L
FC Melbourne Srbija	2-3 L	0-2 L
North Sunshine Eagles	2-0 W	1-1 D
North Geelong	1-2 L	3-1 W
Langwarrin	3-1 W	6-1 W
Western United FC NPL	2-1 W	3-4 L
Brunswick City	1-0 W	1-3 L
Bulleen Lions	1-1 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Northcote City (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Northcote City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
17/07	Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1	3-1	3-3	12	1	D
10/07	Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
03/07	FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-2	2-3	7	4	L
20/06	North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
13/06	North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	1-2	8	3	L
05/06	Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	3-1	5	6	W
31/05	Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
22/05	Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
15/05	Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	1-1	7	5	D

Eltham Redbacks

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	0-2	7	1	L
18/07	North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
11/07	North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1	2-0	3-1	5	2	W
04/07	Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1	2-1	6-1	6	2	W
19/06	Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-3	3-4	5	2	L
12/06	Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	1-3	8	7	L
05/06	Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1	2-0	2-2	2	1	D
30/05	Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-0	1-2	9	3	L
22/05	Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1	2-0	3-3	8	7	D
15/05	Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-2	0-4	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Northcote City vs Eltham Redbacks?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Northcote City win (51%). Probabilities: Northcote City 51%, draw 22%, Eltham Redbacks 27%.

How many goals are expected in Northcote City vs Eltham Redbacks?

The model expects 3.56 goals (Northcote City 2.08 · Eltham Redbacks 1.48), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Northcote City vs Eltham Redbacks?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.