Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 1 · 17/08, 12:15

Prediction: Melbourne Victory NPL vs Northcote City

Team pages: Melbourne Victory NPL · Northcote City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Melbourne Victory NPL1.62

Northcote City1.57

1X2

39% 24% 37%

Melbourne Victory NPL Draw Northcote City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Melbourne Victory NPL 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Northcote City 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Melbourne Victory NPL 1–2 Northcote City (3 last)

Northcote City1-0Melbourne Victory NPL
Melbourne Victory NPL1-2Northcote City
Northcote City1-3Melbourne Victory NPL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Melbourne Victory NPL 1551 · Northcote City 1539

	Melbourne Victory NPL	Draw	Northcote City
Our model	38%	26%	36%
Market	40%	22%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Northcote City: 2-0-1.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Melbourne Victory NPL	Northcote City
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.4	1.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.9	3.7 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.4	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X4.10

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 11:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.25▼	Pinn 2.35
X	4.00 → 4.10▲	Bet365 4.10
2	2.20 → 2.38▲	Pinn 2.51 ★

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 10.9% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:15 +5’	2.45	4.00	2.20
03:07 +8’	2.25▼	4.10▲	2.35▲
07:49 +2’	2.25	4.00▼	2.40▲
10:22 +4’	2.30▲	4.10▲	2.35▼
11:20 +3’	2.25▼	4.10	2.38▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:49 +5’	2.34	3.69	2.46
07:50 +1’	2.32▼	3.62▼	2.52▲
08:41	2.36▲	3.61▼	2.47▼
10:24 +2’	2.38▲	3.71▲	2.49▲
11:23 +1’	2.35▼	3.74▲	2.51▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Melbourne Victory NPL 1–0–2 Northcote City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1	Northcote City	1-0 HT 1-0	Melbourne Victory NPL
19/05/24 Australia Victoria Premier League 1	Melbourne Victory NPL	1-2 HT 1-2	Northcote City
09/02/24 Australia Victoria Premier League 1	Northcote City	1-3	Melbourne Victory NPL

Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Melbourne Knights	22	15	3	4	41	15	48
2	Brunswick Juventus	22	13	2	7	37	25	41
3	Northcote City	21	12	4	5	35	22	40
4	Melbourne Victory NPL	21	11	4	6	48	31	37
5	Bulleen Lions	21	9	6	6	38	28	33
6	FC Melbourne Srbija	22	10	3	9	25	24	33
7	Eltham Redbacks	22	9	5	8	49	35	32
8	Manningham United Blues	22	9	3	10	32	42	30
9	North Geelong	23	9	1	13	31	48	28
10	Brunswick City	22	8	3	11	40	45	27
11	Langwarrin	22	5	5	12	37	51	20
12	North Sunshine Eagles	22	4	5	13	26	36	17
13	Port Melbourne SC	22	4	4	14	12	49	16

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Melbourne Victory NPL	Northcote City
FC Melbourne Srbija	1-0 W	2-3 L
North Sunshine Eagles	1-0 W	2-0 W
North Geelong	2-0 W	1-2 L
Langwarrin	3-3 D	3-1 W
Western United FC NPL	2-3 L	2-1 W
Brunswick City	4-1 W	1-0 W
Melbourne Knights	1-2 L	0-1 L
Eltham Redbacks	3-3 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Northcote City (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Melbourne Victory NPL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-0	1-0	5	0	W
27/07	North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
18/07	North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1	2-0	2-0	4	2	W
10/07	Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1	2-2	3-3	3	4	D
05/07	Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-1	2-3	6	8	L
22/06	Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	4-1	8	5	W
13/06	Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1	2-0	4-2	1	3	W
08/06	Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1	2-0	4-0	8	7	W
01/06	Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
22/05	Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-2	3-3	7	7	D

Northcote City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-0	1-0	8	4	W
25/07	Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
17/07	Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1	3-1	3-3	12	1	D
10/07	Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
03/07	FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-2	2-3	7	4	L
20/06	North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
13/06	North Geelong Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	1-2	8	3	L
05/06	Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	3-1	5	6	W
31/05	Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
22/05	Brunswick City Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	1-0	8	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Melbourne Victory NPL vs Northcote City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Melbourne Victory NPL win (39%). Probabilities: Melbourne Victory NPL 39%, draw 24%, Northcote City 37%.

How many goals are expected in Melbourne Victory NPL vs Northcote City?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Melbourne Victory NPL 1.62 · Northcote City 1.57), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Melbourne Victory NPL vs Northcote City?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.