Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 1 · 15/08, 09:15

Prediction: Brunswick City vs North Geelong

Team pages: Brunswick City · North Geelong

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.61Total

Brunswick City2.14

North Geelong1.47

1X2

52% 22% 26%

Brunswick City Draw North Geelong

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Brunswick City 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWLLDLWW

North Geelong 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWWWDLLLLL

Head-to-head

Brunswick City 1–1–4 North Geelong (6 last)

North Geelong1-0Brunswick City
Brunswick City0-2North Geelong
North Geelong0-1Brunswick City
North Geelong2-1Brunswick City
Brunswick City0-5North Geelong
North Geelong1-1Brunswick City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Brunswick City 1516 · North Geelong 1457

	Brunswick City	Draw	North Geelong
Our model	52%	22%	26%
Market	53%	21%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.61 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brunswick City (rating 1516 vs 1457).
H2H favours North Geelong: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Brunswick City	North Geelong
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2.1	1.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.4	2.1 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.9	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.70

X4.33

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.93

Under 3.751.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
08:34 +5’	1.70	4.33	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Brunswick City 1–1–4 North Geelong

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 1	North Geelong	1-0 HT 1-0	Brunswick City
25/05/24 Australia Victoria Premier League 1	Brunswick City	0-2 HT 0-1	North Geelong
17/02/24 Australia Victoria Premier League 1	North Geelong	0-1 HT 0-0	Brunswick City
02/07/22 Australia Victoria Premier League 2	North Geelong	2-1 HT 1-0	Brunswick City
16/04/22 Australia Victoria Premier League 2	Brunswick City	0-5 HT 0-1	North Geelong
22/05/21 Australia Victoria Premier League 2	North Geelong	1-1 HT 0-0	Brunswick City

Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 1

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Melbourne Knights	23	16	2	5	46	19	50
2	Northcote City	23	14	4	5	41	24	46
3	Brunswick Juventus	23	15	1	7	44	30	46
4	Melbourne Victory NPL	23	12	4	7	52	35	40
5	Bulleen Lions	23	11	6	6	44	30	39
6	FC Melbourne Srbija	23	11	2	10	27	24	35
7	Eltham Redbacks	23	9	5	9	49	39	32
8	Brunswick City	23	9	3	11	45	47	30
9	Manningham United Blues	23	9	3	11	38	47	30
10	North Geelong	23	9	1	13	33	47	28
11	Western United FC NPL	23	8	1	14	46	63	25
12	Langwarrin	23	6	5	12	40	53	23
13	North Sunshine Eagles	23	5	5	13	29	38	20
14	Port Melbourne SC	23	4	4	15	13	51	16

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Brunswick City	North Geelong
Melbourne Knights	0-2 L	1-2 L
Bulleen Lions	1-1 D	0-4 L
Brunswick Juventus	2-7 L	0-3 L
Melbourne Victory NPL	1-4 L	0-2 L
Eltham Redbacks	3-1 W	1-3 L
Port Melbourne SC	3-1 W	1-1 D
Manningham United Blues	3-1 W	3-2 W
Northcote City	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Brunswick City

LWWWLLDLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Langwarrin Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-2	4-3	1	4	W
24/07	Western United FC NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-0	5-0	6	2	W
17/07	Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
13/07	Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
03/07	Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-3	2-7	2	2	L
22/06	Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	1-4	6	5	L
12/06	Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	3-1	4	7	W
06/06	Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1	3-1	3-1	7	8	W
29/05	Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	3-1	6	0	W
22/05	Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	0-1	3	2	L

North Geelong

LWWWDLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	FC Melbourne Srbija Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
01/08	Bulleen Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-1	0-4	5	6	L
25/07	Brunswick Juventus Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-2	0-3	1	1	L
18/07	Melbourne Victory NPL Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-2	0-2	8	2	L
11/07	Eltham Redbacks Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-2	1-3	6	2	L
04/07	Port Melbourne SC Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
20/06	Manningham United Blues Australia Victoria Premier League 1	2-0	3-2	3	7	W
13/06	Northcote City Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
30/05	North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 1	0-0	3-0	5	5	W
24/05	Melbourne Knights Australia Victoria Premier League 1	1-1	1-2	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Brunswick City vs North Geelong?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Brunswick City win (52%). Probabilities: Brunswick City 52%, draw 22%, North Geelong 26%.

How many goals are expected in Brunswick City vs North Geelong?

The model expects 3.61 goals (Brunswick City 2.14 · North Geelong 1.47), with a 54% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Brunswick City vs North Geelong?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.