Prediction: Valur Reykjavik (W) vs Stjarnan (W)
Expected goals: 3.03 (Valur Reykjavik (W) 1.24 · Stjarnan (W) 1.78). The model gives 26% home, 24% draw, 50% away. Under 3 goals (51%) and both teams to score (56%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, Valur Reykjavik (W) is 2-3-5 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Stjarnan (W) 6-3-1 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Valur Reykjavik (W) won 2 and Stjarnan (W) 3, with 1 draw.
| Valur Reykjavik (W) | Draw | Stjarnan (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 25% | 49% |
| Market | 26% | 24% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stjarnan (W) (rating 1458 vs 1581).
- H2H favours Stjarnan (W): 3-1-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Valur Reykjavik (W) | Stjarnan (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.4 | 2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.4 | 3.8 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0.2 | 2.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Valur Reykjavik (W) 2–1–3 Stjarnan (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/26 Iceland Premier League Women | Stjarnan (W) | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Valur Reykjavik (W) |
| 06/10/25 Iceland Premier League Women | Valur Reykjavik (W) | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Stjarnan (W) |
| 13/08/25 Iceland Premier League Women | Valur Reykjavik (W) | 4-2 HT 1-2 | Stjarnan (W) |
| 03/05/25 Iceland Premier League Women | Stjarnan (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Valur Reykjavik (W) |
| 09/08/24 Iceland Premier League Women | Stjarnan (W) | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Valur Reykjavik (W) |
| 08/06/24 Iceland Premier League Women | Valur Reykjavik (W) | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Stjarnan (W) |
Standings · Iceland Premier League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Breidablik (W) | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | FH Hafnarfjordur (W) | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Stjarnan (W) | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 16 | 14 |
| 5 | Throttur Reykjavik (W) | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 13 |
| 6 | Grindavik/Njardvik (W) | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 12 |
| 7 | Vikingur Reykjavik (W) | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 23 | 10 |
| 8 | Valur Reykjavik (W) | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 9 |
| 9 | Thor/KA Akureyri (W) | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 6 |
| 10 | Fram Reykjavik (W) | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 4 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Valur Reykjavik (W) | Stjarnan (W) |
|---|---|---|
| FH Hafnarfjordur (W) | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Thor/KA Akureyri (W) | 0-0 D | 4-1 W |
| Throttur Reykjavik (W) | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Fram Reykjavik (W) | 0-0 D | 3-0 W |
| Grindavik/Njardvik (W) | 2-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Breidablik (W) | 2-3 L | 3-1 W |
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) | 2-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 3 D 4 L | 5 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Stjarnan (W) (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valur Reykjavik (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | FH Hafnarfjordur (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 13/06 | Thor/KA Akureyri (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 29/05 | Throttur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 25/05 | Vikingur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 20/05 | Fram Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 15/05 | Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Cup Women |
0-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 11/05 | Breidablik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
2-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 06/05 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 29/04 | Stjarnan (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
Stjarnan (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Fram Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 18/06 | Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Cup Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 13/06 | Breidablik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 25/05 | Throttur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 20/05 | Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 15/05 | Thor/KA Akureyri (W) Iceland Cup Women |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | FH Hafnarfjordur (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 06/05 | Thor/KA Akureyri (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 29/04 | Valur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valur Reykjavik (W) vs Stjarnan (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Stjarnan (W) win (50%). Probabilities: Valur Reykjavik (W) 26%, draw 24%, Stjarnan (W) 50%.
How many goals are expected in Valur Reykjavik (W) vs Stjarnan (W)?
The model expects 3.03 goals (Valur Reykjavik (W) 1.24 · Stjarnan (W) 1.78), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Valur Reykjavik (W) vs Stjarnan (W)?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.