Football · Iceland Premier League Women · 19/07, 18:00

Prediction: Thor/KA Akureyri (W) vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Thor/KA Akureyri (W)1.6

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)1.66

1X2

37% 24% 39%

Thor/KA Akureyri (W) Draw IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLLLDWWL

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDLDDLWW

Head-to-head

Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 2–1–3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 1453 · IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) 1517

	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	Draw	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)
Our model	36%	25%	39%
Market	38%	22%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) (rating 1453 vs 1517).
H2H favours IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W): 3-1-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.3	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.7	1.8 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	1.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.40

X4.00

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.40▼	Bet365 2.40
X	4.20 → 4.00▼	Pinn 4.13
2	1.90 → 2.25▲	Pinn 2.38 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:19 +4’	2.90	4.20	1.90
15:20 +1’	2.40▼	4.00▼	2.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:20 +1’	2.38	4.09	2.31
16:21	2.33▼	4.13▲	2.38▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 2–1–3 IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Iceland Premier League Women	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
10/02/24 Iceland Cup Women	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)	0-7 HT 0-2	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
09/07/23 Iceland Premier League Women	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	0-2 HT 0-0	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)
07/05/23 Iceland Premier League Women	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
14/09/22 Iceland Premier League Women	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	3-3 HT 1-1	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)
23/05/22 Iceland Premier League Women	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)	5-4 HT 2-3	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)

Standings · Iceland Premier League Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FH Hafnarfjordur (W)	11	8	2	1	37	16	26
2	Breidablik (W)	11	8	0	3	31	15	24
3	Stjarnan (W)	11	6	3	2	20	11	21
4	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)	11	6	2	3	18	18	20
5	Throttur Reykjavik (W)	11	4	1	6	14	17	13
6	Grindavik/Njardvik (W)	11	3	3	5	12	21	12
7	Valur Reykjavik (W)	11	2	4	5	10	14	10
8	Vikingur Reykjavik (W)	11	3	1	7	19	30	10
9	Fram Reykjavik (W)	11	3	1	7	12	25	10
10	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	11	2	3	6	16	22	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)
Stjarnan (W)	2-3 L	0-2 L
Grindavik/Njardvik (W)	1-0 W	1-1 D
Throttur Reykjavik (W)	2-0 W	0-0 D
Valur Reykjavik (W)	0-0 D	2-1 W
Vikingur Reykjavik (W)	4-6 L	3-1 W
Breidablik (W)	1-3 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Thor/KA Akureyri (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Thor/KA Akureyri (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/07	Stjarnan (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-1	2-3	4	1	L
09/07	Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
22/06	Throttur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-0	2-0	8	1	W
13/06	Valur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
30/05	Vikingur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-4	4-6	6	2	L
25/05	Fram Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-2	2-3	6	3	L
20/05	Breidablik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	1-3	4	3	L
15/05	Stjarnan (W) Iceland Cup Women	1-1	1-4	5	4	L
10/05	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
06/05	Stjarnan (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-2	2-2	9	2	D

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)

WWLDLDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/07	Valur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-0	2-1	6	0	W
09/07	Vikingur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-1	3-1	7	0	W
22/06	Breidablik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-3	0-3	6	1	L
17/06	FH Hafnarfjordur (W) Iceland Cup Women	1-1	2-2	4	0	D
13/06	Throttur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	0-0	7	0	D
30/05	Stjarnan (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	0-2	0	1	L
25/05	Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
20/05	FH Hafnarfjordur (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-1	0-3	1	1	L
16/05	Tindastoll (W) Iceland Cup Women	4-0	5-0	–	–	W
10/05	Thor/KA Akureyri (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-0	2-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Thor/KA Akureyri (W) vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) win (39%). Probabilities: Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 37%, draw 24%, IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) 39%.

How many goals are expected in Thor/KA Akureyri (W) vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 1.6 · IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) 1.66), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Thor/KA Akureyri (W) vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.