Football · Iceland Premier League Women · 21/08, 20:00

Prediction: Thor/KA Akureyri (W) vs Valur Reykjavik (W)

Team pages: Thor/KA Akureyri (W) · Valur Reykjavik (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Thor/KA Akureyri (W)1.8

Valur Reykjavik (W)1.3

1X2

48% 24% 27%

Thor/KA Akureyri (W) Draw Valur Reykjavik (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWWLWLWW

Valur Reykjavik (W) 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLDDDLLLWL

Head-to-head

Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 1–1–4 Valur Reykjavik (W) (6 last)

Valur Reykjavik (W)0-0Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
Thor/KA Akureyri (W)1-2Valur Reykjavik (W)
Valur Reykjavik (W)3-0Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
Thor/KA Akureyri (W)2-0Valur Reykjavik (W)
Thor/KA Akureyri (W)0-1Valur Reykjavik (W)
Thor/KA Akureyri (W)1-2Valur Reykjavik (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 1521 · Valur Reykjavik (W) 1454

	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	Draw	Valur Reykjavik (W)
Our model	48%	25%	27%
Market	49%	24%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Thor/KA Akureyri (W) (rating 1521 vs 1454).
H2H favours Valur Reykjavik (W): 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	Valur Reykjavik (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.5	0.9 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.2 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.1	1.6 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.80

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
04:44 +5’	1.83	3.80	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 1–1–4 Valur Reykjavik (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 Iceland Premier League Women	Valur Reykjavik (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
07/08/25 Iceland Premier League Women	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	1-2 HT 0-0	Valur Reykjavik (W)
27/04/25 Iceland Premier League Women	Valur Reykjavik (W)	3-0 HT 0-0	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)
08/03/25 Iceland Cup Women	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	2-0 HT 0-0	Valur Reykjavik (W)
13/09/24 Iceland Premier League Women	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Valur Reykjavik (W)
25/06/24 Iceland Premier League Women	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	1-2 HT 0-0	Valur Reykjavik (W)

Standings · Iceland Premier League Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Breidablik (W)	15	12	0	3	44	16	36
2	FH Hafnarfjordur (W)	15	10	3	2	52	28	33
3	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)	15	7	3	5	26	28	24
4	Stjarnan (W)	15	6	5	4	26	22	23
5	Grindavik/Njardvik (W)	15	5	4	6	20	26	19
6	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	15	5	3	7	23	25	18
7	Throttur Reykjavik (W)	15	5	3	7	21	25	18
8	Fram Reykjavik (W)	15	5	1	9	22	35	16
9	Valur Reykjavik (W)	15	3	4	8	15	28	13
10	Vikingur Reykjavik (W)	15	3	2	10	21	37	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Thor/KA Akureyri (W)	Valur Reykjavik (W)
Vikingur Reykjavik (W)	3-0 W	1-0 W
Fram Reykjavik (W)	2-0 W	1-4 L
Breidablik (W)	0-2 L	1-7 L
IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W)	2-1 W	1-2 L
Stjarnan (W)	2-3 L	1-1 D
Throttur Reykjavik (W)	2-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Thor/KA Akureyri (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Thor/KA Akureyri (W)

LLDWWLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Vikingur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
07/08	Fram Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
29/07	Breidablik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
19/07	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
14/07	Stjarnan (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-1	2-3	4	1	L
09/07	Grindavik/Njardvik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
22/06	Throttur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-0	2-0	8	1	W
13/06	Valur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
30/05	Vikingur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-4	4-6	6	2	L
25/05	Fram Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	2-2	2-3	6	3	L

Valur Reykjavik (W)

WLDDDLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/08	Throttur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-3	2-3	5	4	L
07/08	Vikingur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-0	1-0	0	2	W
29/07	Fram Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-1	1-4	8	6	L
21/07	Breidablik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-6	1-7	3	2	L
15/07	IBV Vestmannaeyjar (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-2	1-2	7	0	L
10/07	Stjarnan (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
23/06	FH Hafnarfjordur (W) Iceland Premier League Women	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
13/06	Thor/KA Akureyri (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
29/05	Throttur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
25/05	Vikingur Reykjavik (W) Iceland Premier League Women	0-0	1-0	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Thor/KA Akureyri (W) vs Valur Reykjavik (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Thor/KA Akureyri (W) win (48%). Probabilities: Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 48%, draw 24%, Valur Reykjavik (W) 27%.

How many goals are expected in Thor/KA Akureyri (W) vs Valur Reykjavik (W)?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Thor/KA Akureyri (W) 1.8 · Valur Reykjavik (W) 1.3), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Thor/KA Akureyri (W) vs Valur Reykjavik (W)?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.