Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 09/08, 01:00
Prediction: Houston Dynamo II vs Real Monarchs SLC
Team pages: Houston Dynamo II · Real Monarchs SLC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.28Total
Houston Dynamo II2
Real Monarchs SLC1.28
1X2
Houston Dynamo II
Draw
Real Monarchs SLC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Houston Dynamo II
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Real Monarchs SLC
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Houston Dynamo II
4–1–1
Real Monarchs SLC
(6 last)
- Real Monarchs SLC0-1Houston Dynamo II
- Houston Dynamo II0-4Real Monarchs SLC
- Real Monarchs SLC1-1Houston Dynamo II
- Real Monarchs SLC1-2Houston Dynamo II
- Real Monarchs SLC3-5Houston Dynamo II
- Houston Dynamo II3-0Real Monarchs SLC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Houston Dynamo II 1504 · Real Monarchs SLC 1442
| Houston Dynamo II | Draw | Real Monarchs SLC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Market | 53% | 23% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Houston Dynamo II (rating 1504 vs 1442).
- H2H favours Houston Dynamo II: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Houston Dynamo II | Real Monarchs SLC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.5 | 1.2 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 4.1 | 2.3 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.5 | 5.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Houston Dynamo II 4–1–1 Real Monarchs SLC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Houston Dynamo II |
| 10/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Houston Dynamo II | 0-4 HT 0-1 | Real Monarchs SLC |
| 16/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Houston Dynamo II |
| 09/05/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Houston Dynamo II |
| 29/07/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 3-5 HT 2-1 | Houston Dynamo II |
| 15/05/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Houston Dynamo II | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Real Monarchs SLC |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 42 | 18 | 46 |
| 2 | Portland Timbers II | 21 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 28 | 24 | 43 |
| 3 | Houston Dynamo II | 19 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 42 | 19 | 42 |
| 4 | Ventura County FC | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 28 | 38 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FC II | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 33 | 32 | 34 |
| 6 | Tacoma Defiance | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 29 | 29 | 33 |
| 7 | St Louis City II | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 33 | 33 |
| 8 | The Town | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 38 | 24 | 29 |
| 9 | Minnesota United FC II | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 29 | 34 | 29 |
| 10 | North Texas SC | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 30 | 29 | 26 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs SLC | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 31 | 39 | 26 |
| 12 | Sporting Kansas City II | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 27 | 52 | 19 |
| 13 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 28 | 49 | 19 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 21 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 18 | 42 | 12 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Houston Dynamo II | Real Monarchs SLC |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Kansas City II | 2-3 L | 1-3 L |
| St Louis City II | 2-1 W | 0-3 L |
| Los Angeles FC II | 1-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Tacoma Defiance | 1-2 L | 2-4 L |
| Ventura County FC | 1-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Portland Timbers II | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 4 L | 0 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Houston Dynamo II (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Houston Dynamo II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 27/07 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 19/07 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 12/07 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 05/07 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 29/06 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 9 | 11 | L |
| 18/06 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 07/06 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
Real Monarchs SLC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 26/07 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 20/07 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 06/07 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 28/06 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 22/06 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 08/06 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 30/05 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Houston Dynamo II vs Real Monarchs SLC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Houston Dynamo II win (53%). Probabilities: Houston Dynamo II 53%, draw 23%, Real Monarchs SLC 23%.
How many goals are expected in Houston Dynamo II vs Real Monarchs SLC?
The model expects 3.28 goals (Houston Dynamo II 2 · Real Monarchs SLC 1.28), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Houston Dynamo II vs Real Monarchs SLC?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.