Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 08/08, 18:00
Prediction: Philadelphia Union II vs FC Cincinnati II
Team pages: Philadelphia Union II · FC Cincinnati II
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.95Total
Philadelphia Union II1.9
FC Cincinnati II1.05
1X2
Philadelphia Union II
Draw
FC Cincinnati II
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Philadelphia Union II
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
FC Cincinnati II
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Philadelphia Union II
5–1
FC Cincinnati II
(6 last)
- Philadelphia Union II1-0FC Cincinnati II
- Philadelphia Union II2-1FC Cincinnati II
- FC Cincinnati II1-2Philadelphia Union II
- Philadelphia Union II1-0FC Cincinnati II
- FC Cincinnati II1-4Philadelphia Union II
- Philadelphia Union II0-1FC Cincinnati II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Philadelphia Union II 1497 · FC Cincinnati II 1402
| Philadelphia Union II | Draw | FC Cincinnati II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Market | 58% | 21% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.95 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Philadelphia Union II (rating 1497 vs 1402).
- H2H favours Philadelphia Union II: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Philadelphia Union II | FC Cincinnati II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.7 | 0.9 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 2.6 | 3.1 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.4 | 4.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Philadelphia Union II 5–0–1 FC Cincinnati II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Philadelphia Union II | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FC Cincinnati II |
| 19/10/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Philadelphia Union II | 2-1 HT 1-1 | FC Cincinnati II |
| 01/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | FC Cincinnati II | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Philadelphia Union II |
| 04/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Philadelphia Union II | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FC Cincinnati II |
| 04/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | FC Cincinnati II | 1-4 HT 0-2 | Philadelphia Union II |
| 02/08/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Philadelphia Union II | 0-1 HT 0-1 | FC Cincinnati II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 52 | 28 | 46 |
| 2 | Chattanooga FC | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 40 | 30 | 40 |
| 3 | New England Revolution II | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 23 | 39 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew II | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 31 | 39 |
| 5 | Orlando City II | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 42 | 38 | 35 |
| 6 | Atlanta United II | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 44 | 33 | 34 |
| 7 | CT United | 20 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 39 | 35 | 34 |
| 8 | Chicago Fire II | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 41 | 30 | 33 |
| 9 | New York Red Bulls II | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 41 | 36 | 32 |
| 10 | New York City FC II | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| 11 | Huntsville City | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 33 | 38 | 28 |
| 12 | Philadelphia Union II | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 22 | 28 | 27 |
| 13 | Toronto FC II | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 31 | 38 | 25 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 30 | 40 | 23 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 20 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 21 | 43 | 16 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 20 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 16 | 49 | 8 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Philadelphia Union II | FC Cincinnati II |
|---|---|---|
| New York City FC II | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Columbus Crew II | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| New England Revolution II | 4-0 W | 2-2 D |
| New York Red Bulls II | 0-5 L | 2-2 D |
| Orlando City II | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Toronto FC II | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 0 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Philadelphia Union II (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Philadelphia Union II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 10 | D |
| 26/07 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 19/07 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 12/07 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 05/07 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 29/06 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 22/06 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 14/06 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 06/06 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 30/05 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
FC Cincinnati II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-4 | 2-7 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 27/07 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 18/07 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 13/07 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 06/07 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 29/06 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 19/06 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 15/06 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 08/06 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Philadelphia Union II vs FC Cincinnati II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Philadelphia Union II win (57%). Probabilities: Philadelphia Union II 57%, draw 22%, FC Cincinnati II 21%.
How many goals are expected in Philadelphia Union II vs FC Cincinnati II?
The model expects 2.95 goals (Philadelphia Union II 1.9 · FC Cincinnati II 1.05), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Philadelphia Union II vs FC Cincinnati II?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.