Football · Norway Division 2 Group 2 · 16/08, 13:00

Prediction: Follo vs Rana FK

Team pages: Follo · Rana FK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Follo1.59

Rana FK1.7

1X2

36% 24% 40%

Follo Draw Rana FK

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Follo 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLDLL

Rana FK 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLWDWLLW

Head-to-head

Follo 1–1 Rana FK (2 last)

Follo2-1Rana FK
Rana FK1-0Follo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Follo 1407 · Rana FK 1490

	Follo	Draw	Rana FK
Our model	35%	25%	40%
Market	36%	23%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rana FK (rating 1407 vs 1490).
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Follo	Rana FK
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.1	1.9 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.2	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.6	2.1 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.4	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.90

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 3.02 ★
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:33 +6’	2.50	3.90	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:31 +8’	3.02	3.54	2.09

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Follo 1–0–1 Rana FK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/10/25 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Follo	2-1 HT 1-1	Rana FK
20/07/25 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Rana FK	1-0 HT 1-0	Follo

Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Eidsvold TF	16	12	2	2	41	14	38
2	Kjelsås	15	11	1	3	34	21	34
3	Honefoss	15	10	2	3	42	20	32
4	Levanger	15	10	0	5	30	19	30
5	Grorud	15	8	2	5	24	15	26
6	Lørenskog	16	8	2	6	27	24	26
7	Tromsdalen	15	7	2	6	24	27	23
8	Stjørdals/Blink	15	6	2	7	25	26	20
9	Junkeren	15	6	2	7	22	26	20
10	Rana FK	14	5	2	7	24	27	17
11	Skeid	15	4	1	10	22	29	13
12	Follo	14	2	3	9	15	29	9
13	Ullensaker/Kisa	15	3	0	12	20	53	9
14	Trygg/Lade	15	2	1	12	18	38	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Follo	Rana FK
Junkeren	1-4 L	1-2 L
Kjelsås	1-4 L	2-3 L
Ullensaker/Kisa	1-2 L	3-1 W
Skeid	0-2 L	2-0 W
Lørenskog	0-1 L	2-1 W
Eidsvold TF	1-4 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 6 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Rana FK (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Follo

WLLLLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Junkeren Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-3	1-4	6	3	L
02/08	Trygg/Lade Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	1-2	2	2	L
25/07	Tromsdalen Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
28/06	Levanger Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	0-2	7	6	L
12/06	Kjelsås Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-3	1-4	4	2	L
30/05	Ullensaker/Kisa Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-2	6	7	L
23/05	Skeid Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-2	0-2	6	5	L
16/05	Lørenskog Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
09/05	Eidsvold TF Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-2	1-4	2	3	L
03/05	Junkeren Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	2-0	3	10	W

Rana FK

DWLLWDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Skeid Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
01/08	Stjørdals/Blink Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	2-4	4	1	L
26/07	Kjelsås Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	2-3	–	–	L
27/06	Ullensaker/Kisa Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-0	3-1	3	6	W
14/06	Skeid Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-2	3-3	7	2	D
31/05	Stjørdals/Blink Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	3-2	–	–	W
25/05	Eidsvold TF Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-3	1-4	3	1	L
16/05	Junkeren Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	1-2	10	7	L
10/05	Lørenskog Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	2-1	1	4	W
02/05	Grorud Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-0	1	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Follo vs Rana FK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Rana FK win (40%). Probabilities: Follo 36%, draw 24%, Rana FK 40%.

How many goals are expected in Follo vs Rana FK?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Follo 1.59 · Rana FK 1.7), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Follo vs Rana FK?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.