Football · Norway Division 2 Group 2 · 16/08, 14:00

Prediction: Ullensaker/Kisa vs Trygg/Lade

Team pages: Ullensaker/Kisa · Trygg/Lade

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.94Total

Ullensaker/Kisa2.26

Trygg/Lade1.68

1X2

50% 22% 28%

Ullensaker/Kisa Draw Trygg/Lade

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Ullensaker/Kisa 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLLLLL

Trygg/Lade 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLWL

Head-to-head

Ullensaker/Kisa 0–1 Trygg/Lade (1 last)

Trygg/Lade4-2Ullensaker/Kisa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ullensaker/Kisa 1423 · Trygg/Lade 1424

	Ullensaker/Kisa	Draw	Trygg/Lade
Our model	50%	22%	28%
Market	50%	22%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.94 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ullensaker/Kisa	Trygg/Lade
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 3.4	1.2 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1.7	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.5	1.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	2.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X4.00

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.752.00

Under 3.751.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.93 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.07
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:44 +7’	1.80	4.00	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:50 +2’	1.94	3.97	3.07
01:17 +1’	1.93▼	4.07▲	3.06▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ullensaker/Kisa 0–0–1 Trygg/Lade

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Trygg/Lade	4-2 HT 3-0	Ullensaker/Kisa

Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Eidsvold TF	16	12	2	2	41	14	38
2	Kjelsås	15	11	1	3	34	21	34
3	Honefoss	15	10	2	3	42	20	32
4	Levanger	15	10	0	5	30	19	30
5	Grorud	15	8	2	5	24	15	26
6	Lørenskog	16	8	2	6	27	24	26
7	Tromsdalen	15	7	2	6	24	27	23
8	Stjørdals/Blink	15	6	2	7	25	26	20
9	Junkeren	15	6	2	7	22	26	20
10	Rana FK	14	5	2	7	24	27	17
11	Skeid	15	4	1	10	22	29	13
12	Follo	14	2	3	9	15	29	9
13	Ullensaker/Kisa	15	3	0	12	20	53	9
14	Trygg/Lade	15	2	1	12	18	38	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ullensaker/Kisa	Trygg/Lade
Tromsdalen	1-2 L	1-2 L
Levanger	0-3 L	0-3 L
Grorud	2-1 W	0-1 L
Follo	2-1 W	2-1 W
Eidsvold TF	2-5 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ullensaker/Kisa

LLLWWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Honefoss Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-3	1-9	–	–	L
02/08	Tromsdalen Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
25/07	Levanger Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	0-3	2	3	L
27/06	Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-2	1-3	3	6	L
20/06	Kjelsås Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-3	3	1	L
13/06	Grorud Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	2-1	6	7	W
30/05	Follo Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	2-1	4	7	W
25/05	Junkeren Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-3	0-3	7	4	L
15/05	Eidsvold TF Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-4	2-5	5	4	L
10/05	Trygg/Lade Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-3	2-4	6	2	L

Trygg/Lade

WLLLLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Grorud Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	0-1	1	4	L
02/08	Follo Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	2-1	10	2	W
26/07	Eidsvold TF Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	1-2	2	1	L
28/06	Skeid Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-2	1-7	1	2	L
21/06	Lørenskog Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-2	1-4	8	6	L
14/06	Stjørdals/Blink Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-2	2	2	L
31/05	Grorud Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
24/05	Tromsdalen Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-2	1-2	9	5	L
16/05	Levanger Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-3	0-3	6	3	L
10/05	Ullensaker/Kisa Norway Division 2 Group 2	3-0	4-2	2	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ullensaker/Kisa vs Trygg/Lade?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ullensaker/Kisa win (50%). Probabilities: Ullensaker/Kisa 50%, draw 22%, Trygg/Lade 28%.

How many goals are expected in Ullensaker/Kisa vs Trygg/Lade?

The model expects 3.94 goals (Ullensaker/Kisa 2.26 · Trygg/Lade 1.68), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ullensaker/Kisa vs Trygg/Lade?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.