Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 12/09, 13:00

Prediction: Heming vs Frigg

Team pages: Heming · Frigg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.94Total

Heming2.14

Frigg1.79

1X2

46% 21% 33%

Heming Draw Frigg

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Heming 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWDLWL

Frigg 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWDDDWDW

Head-to-head

Heming 0–1 Frigg (1 last)

Frigg4-1Heming

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Heming 1508 · Frigg 1530

	Heming	Draw	Frigg
Our model	46%	22%	32%
Market	46%	21%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.94 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Heming	Frigg
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.8	2.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.6	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.6	2.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.95

X4.33

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.80

Under 3.752.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:28 +22’	1.95	4.33	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Heming 0–0–1 Frigg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Frigg	4-1 HT 1-1	Heming

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	17	15	1	1	61	22	46
2	Gamle Oslo	18	13	1	4	65	33	40
3	Baerum	18	11	2	5	58	30	35
4	Heming	18	10	3	5	41	29	33
5	Valerenga 2	18	10	1	7	44	53	31
6	Frigg	17	8	5	4	44	33	29
7	IF Ready	18	7	6	5	42	34	27
8	FK Union Carl Berner	17	8	0	9	26	26	24
9	KFUM 2	16	5	2	9	34	45	17
10	Ullern	18	5	2	11	34	49	17
11	Nordstrand	18	5	1	12	30	46	16
12	Lokomotiv Oslo	17	4	2	11	27	53	14
13	Konnerud	18	4	1	13	26	49	13
14	Grei	18	4	1	13	30	60	13

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Heming	Frigg
Gamle Oslo	1-2 L	3-1 W
IF Ready	1-1 D	5-2 W
Baerum	3-1 W	1-1 D
Ullern	3-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Heming

WLWDWWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
30/08	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	5-2	7	4	W
15/08	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	2-5	–	–	L
08/08	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
01/08	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	3-1	6	1	W
25/07	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
28/06	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	2-2	2	1	D
20/06	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-0	7	9	W
13/06	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-4	7	1	L
30/05	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	2-0	4	6	W

Frigg

LWWWDDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	5-2	7	4	W
15/08	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
08/08	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	3-2	5	4	W
01/08	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	2-2	2	6	D
27/07	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	3-3	7	9	D
27/06	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
20/06	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	3-1	7	3	W
13/06	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	4-1	4	1	W
30/05	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	3-0	3-1	2	4	W
23/05	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	1-2	5	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Heming vs Frigg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Heming win (46%). Probabilities: Heming 46%, draw 21%, Frigg 33%.

How many goals are expected in Heming vs Frigg?

The model expects 3.94 goals (Heming 2.14 · Frigg 1.79), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Heming vs Frigg?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.