Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 17/10, 13:00

Prediction: Grei vs Gamle Oslo

Team pages: Grei · Gamle Oslo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.22Total

Grei1.86

Gamle Oslo2.37

1X2

31% 20% 50%

Grei Draw Gamle Oslo

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Grei 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Gamle Oslo 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Grei 0–1 Gamle Oslo (1 last)

Gamle Oslo3-1Grei

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Grei 1463 · Gamle Oslo 1528

	Grei	Draw	Gamle Oslo
Our model	30%	21%	49%
Market	31%	19%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 4.22 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gamle Oslo (rating 1463 vs 1528).
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Grei	Gamle Oslo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.9	2.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	1.1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.8	2.2 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	4.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.90

X4.75

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.98

Under 4.251.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 4.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
22:03 +45’	2.90	4.75	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Grei 0–0–1 Gamle Oslo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Gamle Oslo	3-1 HT 1-1	Grei

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	23	20	1	2	81	33	61
2	Gamle Oslo	23	14	2	7	70	42	44
3	Heming	23	13	5	5	60	38	44
4	Valerenga 2	23	14	1	8	56	57	43
5	IF Ready	23	11	6	6	59	43	39
6	Baerum	23	11	2	10	64	45	35
7	FK Union Carl Berner	23	11	2	10	40	36	35
8	Frigg	23	9	6	8	53	52	33
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	23	8	2	13	43	67	26
10	Ullern	23	7	2	14	42	60	23
11	KFUM 2	23	6	4	13	43	66	22
12	Grei	23	7	1	15	42	72	22
13	Nordstrand	23	6	2	15	36	52	20
14	Konnerud	23	5	2	16	36	62	17

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Grei	Gamle Oslo
Ullern	2-0 W	5-2 W
Asker	4-3 W	1-2 L
IF Ready	3-2 W	3-2 W
Heming	1-4 L	2-1 W
Konnerud	2-3 L	7-1 W
FK Union Carl Berner	0-1 L	3-1 W
Nordstrand	5-3 W	1-0 W
Lokomotiv Oslo	0-1 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 4 L	6 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Gamle Oslo (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Grei

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
03/10	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	4-3	5	2	W
26/09	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	3-2	2	6	W
19/09	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-3	1-4	5	1	L
12/09	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	2-3	0	4	L
05/09	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	0-1	12	4	L
01/09	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	5-3	2	3	W
15/08	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-7	2	2	L
08/08	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
03/08	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	0-5	2	3	L

Gamle Oslo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-0	11	3	W
03/10	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
26/09	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	1-4	0	6	L
20/09	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-2	0	5	L
12/09	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-2	4	3	L
04/09	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
30/08	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	3-2	6	6	W
15/08	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	5-0	7-1	7	1	W
08/08	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-2	5-2	12	5	W
31/07	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	3-1	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Grei vs Gamle Oslo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gamle Oslo win (50%). Probabilities: Grei 31%, draw 20%, Gamle Oslo 50%.

How many goals are expected in Grei vs Gamle Oslo?

The model expects 4.22 goals (Grei 1.86 · Gamle Oslo 2.37), with a 53% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Grei vs Gamle Oslo?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.