Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 17/10, 14:00
Prediction: Baerum vs Ullern
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.48Total
Baerum2.59
Ullern1.89
1X2
Baerum
Draw
Ullern
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 63%
Most likely score
2-1 7%
Recent form · 10 last
Baerum
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Ullern
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Baerum
4–2–0
Ullern
(6 last)
- Ullern0-3Baerum
- Baerum4-2Ullern
- Ullern1-2Baerum
- Ullern1-1Baerum
- Baerum2-2Ullern
- Ullern0-2Baerum
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Baerum 1466 · Ullern 1461
| Baerum | Draw | Ullern | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 20% | 28% |
| Market | 53% | 20% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.48 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Baerum: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Baerum | Ullern | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 2.1 | 2.1 / 2.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 7 | 2.6 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.2 | 3.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Baerum 4–2–0 Ullern
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1 | Ullern | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Baerum |
| 26/10/25 Norway Division 3 Group 1 | Baerum | 4-2 HT 3-2 | Ullern |
| 21/04/25 Norway Division 3 Group 1 | Ullern | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Baerum |
| 07/09/24 Norway Division 3 Group 3 | Ullern | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Baerum |
| 08/06/24 Norway Division 3 Group 3 | Baerum | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Ullern |
| 11/04/24 Norway Cup | Ullern | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Baerum |
Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asker | 23 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 81 | 33 | 61 |
| 2 | Gamle Oslo | 23 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 70 | 42 | 44 |
| 3 | Heming | 23 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 60 | 38 | 44 |
| 4 | Valerenga 2 | 23 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 56 | 57 | 43 |
| 5 | IF Ready | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 59 | 43 | 39 |
| 6 | Baerum | 23 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 64 | 45 | 35 |
| 7 | FK Union Carl Berner | 23 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 40 | 36 | 35 |
| 8 | Frigg | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 53 | 52 | 33 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv Oslo | 23 | 8 | 2 | 13 | 43 | 67 | 26 |
| 10 | Ullern | 23 | 7 | 2 | 14 | 42 | 60 | 23 |
| 11 | KFUM 2 | 23 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 43 | 66 | 22 |
| 12 | Grei | 23 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 42 | 72 | 22 |
| 13 | Nordstrand | 23 | 6 | 2 | 15 | 36 | 52 | 20 |
| 14 | Konnerud | 23 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 36 | 62 | 17 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Baerum | Ullern |
|---|---|---|
| Asker | 2-4 L | 2-6 L |
| IF Ready | 1-2 L | 3-4 L |
| Valerenga 2 | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| FK Union Carl Berner | 1-2 L | 4-1 W |
| Lokomotiv Oslo | 2-5 L | 3-2 W |
| Grei | 7-1 W | 0-2 L |
| KFUM 2 | 5-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Heming | 1-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 6 L | 4 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Baerum (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Baerum
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 04/10 | IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 26/09 | Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 13/09 | Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-4 | 2-5 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 15/08 | Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-1 | 7-1 | 14 | 2 | W |
| 10/08 | KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
2-0 | 5-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
Ullern
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 03/10 | KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
3-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 26/09 | Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-3 | 3-4 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-3 | 2-6 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 30/08 | Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
3-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
0-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 08/08 | Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
2-2 | 2-5 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 01/08 | Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Baerum vs Ullern?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Baerum win (53%). Probabilities: Baerum 53%, draw 20%, Ullern 28%.
How many goals are expected in Baerum vs Ullern?
The model expects 4.48 goals (Baerum 2.59 · Ullern 1.89), with a 52% chance of over 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Baerum vs Ullern?
The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.