Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: FK Union Carl Berner vs Valerenga 2

Team pages: FK Union Carl Berner · Valerenga 2

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.98Total

FK Union Carl Berner2.06

Valerenga 21.92

1X2

42% 22% 36%

FK Union Carl Berner Draw Valerenga 2

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Union Carl Berner 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWDWWDWL

Valerenga 2 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWLWWW

Head-to-head

FK Union Carl Berner 0–1 Valerenga 2 (1 last)

Valerenga 22-1FK Union Carl Berner

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Union Carl Berner 1491 · Valerenga 2 1554

	FK Union Carl Berner	Draw	Valerenga 2
Our model	41%	22%	36%
Market	42%	22%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.98 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valerenga 2 (rating 1491 vs 1554).
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Union Carl Berner	Valerenga 2
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.9	2.7 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.7	1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.6	3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X4.10

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 41.88

Under 41.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.23
2	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 4.54 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
19:36 +7’	2.15	4.10	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:12 +4’	1.84	3.67	3.23
06:01 +13’	1.81▼	3.71▲	3.28▲
08:41 +37’	1.60▼	3.95▲	4.02▲
11:22 +22’	1.49▼	4.23▲	4.54▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Union Carl Berner 0–0–1 Valerenga 2

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/06/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Valerenga 2	2-1 HT 0-0	FK Union Carl Berner

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	23	20	1	2	81	33	61
2	Gamle Oslo	23	14	2	7	70	42	44
3	Heming	23	13	5	5	60	38	44
4	Valerenga 2	23	14	1	8	56	57	43
5	IF Ready	23	11	6	6	59	43	39
6	Baerum	23	11	2	10	64	45	35
7	FK Union Carl Berner	23	11	2	10	40	36	35
8	Frigg	23	9	6	8	53	52	33
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	23	8	2	13	43	67	26
10	Ullern	23	7	2	14	42	60	23
11	KFUM 2	23	6	4	13	43	66	22
12	Grei	23	7	1	15	42	72	22
13	Nordstrand	23	6	2	15	36	52	20
14	Konnerud	23	5	2	16	36	62	17

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Union Carl Berner	Valerenga 2
IF Ready	0-4 L	4-3 W
Lokomotiv Oslo	4-1 W	3-2 W
Frigg	6-2 W	4-1 W
Baerum	2-1 W	2-0 W
Nordstrand	1-1 D	3-0 W
Ullern	1-4 L	1-2 L
Konnerud	1-2 L	2-1 W
Gamle Oslo	1-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	7 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Valerenga 2 (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Union Carl Berner

LLLWDWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	0-4	5	3	L
03/10	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	3-1	4-1	5	4	W
29/09	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
26/09	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	5-1	6-2	5	2	W
19/09	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	3	1	W
12/09	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
05/09	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
15/08	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	1-4	7	1	L
07/08	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	1-2	8	3	L
31/07	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-3	0	4	L

Valerenga 2

WLWLWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	4-1	6	2	W
03/10	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	3-0	5	4	W
26/09	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
19/09	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-2	8	4	L
12/09	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	3	3	W
05/09	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	7	5	W
30/08	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	2-5	6	4	L
16/08	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	4-3	10	2	W
08/08	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	4-5	4	3	L
01/08	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-2	3-2	7	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Union Carl Berner vs Valerenga 2?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Union Carl Berner win (42%). Probabilities: FK Union Carl Berner 42%, draw 22%, Valerenga 2 36%.

How many goals are expected in FK Union Carl Berner vs Valerenga 2?

The model expects 3.98 goals (FK Union Carl Berner 2.06 · Valerenga 2 1.92), with a 52% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Union Carl Berner vs Valerenga 2?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.