Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 17/10, 13:30

Prediction: Konnerud vs Asker

Team pages: Konnerud · Asker

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.53Total

Konnerud1.37

Asker3.16

1X2

13% 15% 72%

Konnerud Draw Asker

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-3 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Konnerud 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Asker 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Konnerud 0–1 Asker (1 last)

Asker3-0Konnerud

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Konnerud 1439 · Asker 1595

	Konnerud	Draw	Asker
Our model	13%	15%	72%
Market	13%	15%	72%

Estimated total (ours) 4.53 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Asker (rating 1439 vs 1595).
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Konnerud	Asker
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.7	3.9 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.2	2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	80/20/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.9	3.2 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

17.00

X6.00

21.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.98

2 (-2)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.98

Under 4.51.82

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 5.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
X	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
2	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
17:58 +68’	7.00	6.00	1.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Konnerud 0–0–1 Asker

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Asker	3-0 HT 1-0	Konnerud

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	23	20	1	2	81	33	61
2	Gamle Oslo	23	14	2	7	70	42	44
3	Heming	23	13	5	5	60	38	44
4	Valerenga 2	23	14	1	8	56	57	43
5	IF Ready	23	11	6	6	59	43	39
6	Baerum	23	11	2	10	64	45	35
7	FK Union Carl Berner	23	11	2	10	40	36	35
8	Frigg	23	9	6	8	53	52	33
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	23	8	2	13	43	67	26
10	Ullern	23	7	2	14	42	60	23
11	KFUM 2	23	6	4	13	43	66	22
12	Grei	23	7	1	15	42	72	22
13	Nordstrand	23	6	2	15	36	52	20
14	Konnerud	23	5	2	16	36	62	17

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Konnerud	Asker
Heming	5-5 D	5-2 W
KFUM 2	0-1 L	7-2 W
Frigg	0-2 L	3-2 W
Grei	3-2 W	3-4 L
Valerenga 2	1-2 L	5-4 W
Baerum	1-1 D	4-2 W
Gamle Oslo	1-7 L	2-1 W
Nordstrand	2-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	7 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Asker (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Konnerud

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	2-3	3	2	L
03/10	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-2	5-5	3	5	D
26/09	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
19/09	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
12/09	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	3-2	11	4	W
05/09	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-2	7	5	L
30/08	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
15/08	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-5	1-7	1	1	L
07/08	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	2-1	6	3	W
01/08	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	2-3	2	3	L

Asker

WWWWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
10/10	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	3-1	4-2	11	4	W
03/10	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	3-4	5	2	L
26/09	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
20/09	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	5	5	W
14/09	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	4-0	7-2	9	0	W
05/09	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	3-1	6-2	6	1	W
15/08	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	5-2	–	–	W
08/08	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	5-4	5	3	W
02/08	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	3-0	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Konnerud vs Asker?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Asker win (72%). Probabilities: Konnerud 13%, draw 15%, Asker 72%.

How many goals are expected in Konnerud vs Asker?

The model expects 4.53 goals (Konnerud 1.37 · Asker 3.16), with a 52% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Konnerud vs Asker?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.