Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 17/10, 13:00

Prediction: Nordstrand vs Heming

Team pages: Nordstrand · Heming

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.02Total

Nordstrand1.68

Heming2.34

1X2

27% 20% 52%

Nordstrand Draw Heming

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Nordstrand 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDWLLL

Heming 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWLWWWDD

Head-to-head

Nordstrand 0–1 Heming (1 last)

Heming3-0Nordstrand

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nordstrand 1417 · Heming 1537

	Nordstrand	Draw	Heming
Our model	27%	21%	52%
Market	28%	20%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 4.02 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Heming (rating 1417 vs 1537).
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nordstrand	Heming
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.4	3.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1	1.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5.1	2.9 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.25

X4.50

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 41.98

Under 41.82

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 4.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
18:47 +11’	3.25	4.50	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nordstrand 0–0–1 Heming

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Heming	3-0 HT 2-0	Nordstrand

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	23	20	1	2	81	33	61
2	Gamle Oslo	23	14	2	7	70	42	44
3	Heming	23	13	5	5	60	38	44
4	Valerenga 2	23	14	1	8	56	57	43
5	IF Ready	23	11	6	6	59	43	39
6	Baerum	23	11	2	10	64	45	35
7	FK Union Carl Berner	23	11	2	10	40	36	35
8	Frigg	23	9	6	8	53	52	33
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	23	8	2	13	43	67	26
10	Ullern	23	7	2	14	42	60	23
11	KFUM 2	23	6	4	13	43	66	22
12	Grei	23	7	1	15	42	72	22
13	Nordstrand	23	6	2	15	36	52	20
14	Konnerud	23	5	2	16	36	62	17

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nordstrand	Heming
Gamle Oslo	0-1 L	1-2 L
Valerenga 2	0-3 L	5-2 W
Asker	0-1 L	2-5 L
Baerum	0-1 L	3-1 W
Grei	3-5 L	4-1 W
KFUM 2	2-7 L	2-2 D
Frigg	2-3 L	5-1 W
Konnerud	3-2 W	5-5 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 7 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Heming (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nordstrand

WLLLLDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
03/10	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	0-3	10	4	L
26/09	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
19/09	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	5-0	3	4	W
12/09	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
05/09	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
01/09	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	3-5	7	3	L
17/08	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-3	2-7	4	4	L
08/08	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	2-3	4	4	L
01/08	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	3-2	5	3	W

Heming

WDLWLWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-2	6	4	D
03/10	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-2	5-5	7	5	D
26/09	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	3-0	5	5	W
19/09	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	3-0	4-1	6	1	W
12/09	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	5-1	3	2	W
04/09	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
30/08	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	5-2	7	4	W
15/08	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	2-5	–	–	L
08/08	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
01/08	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	3-1	6	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nordstrand vs Heming?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Heming win (52%). Probabilities: Nordstrand 27%, draw 20%, Heming 52%.

How many goals are expected in Nordstrand vs Heming?

The model expects 4.02 goals (Nordstrand 1.68 · Heming 2.34), with a 53% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Nordstrand vs Heming?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.