Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 24/10, 18:30

Prediction: Gamle Oslo vs Baerum

Team pages: Gamle Oslo · Baerum

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.38Total

Gamle Oslo2.64

Baerum1.74

1X2

57% 19% 25%

Gamle Oslo Draw Baerum

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Gamle Oslo 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Baerum 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Gamle Oslo 3–2 Baerum (5 last)

Baerum5-1Gamle Oslo
Gamle Oslo4-2Baerum
Baerum1-2Gamle Oslo
Baerum1-2Gamle Oslo
Gamle Oslo2-3Baerum

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gamle Oslo 1497 · Baerum 1476

	Gamle Oslo	Draw	Baerum
Our model	56%	19%	24%
Market	57%	18%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 4.38 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gamle Oslo: 3-0-2.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gamle Oslo	Baerum
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.7	2.2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5	1.9 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.57

X5.00

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.85

Under 4.251.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 16:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 1.57▼	Pinn 1.65 ★
X	4.75 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00
2	2.50 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:39 +18’	2.00	4.75	2.50
11:18 +40’	1.80▼	5.00▲	2.90▲
16:07 +17’	1.57▼	5.00	3.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:04 +31’	1.72	4.11	3.30
16:13 +11’	1.65▼	4.37▲	3.42▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gamle Oslo 3–0–2 Baerum

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Baerum	5-1 HT 2-1	Gamle Oslo
04/10/25 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Gamle Oslo	4-2 HT 1-1	Baerum
10/05/25 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Baerum	1-2 HT 0-0	Gamle Oslo
20/10/24 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Baerum	1-2 HT 0-0	Gamle Oslo
27/04/24 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Gamle Oslo	2-3 HT 1-2	Baerum

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	24	21	1	2	84	35	64
2	Heming	24	14	5	5	62	38	47
3	Gamle Oslo	24	14	2	8	71	44	44
4	Valerenga 2	24	14	1	9	56	61	43
5	IF Ready	24	11	6	7	60	46	39
6	Baerum	24	12	2	10	66	46	38
7	FK Union Carl Berner	24	12	2	10	44	36	38
8	Frigg	24	9	6	9	53	58	33
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	24	9	2	13	46	68	29
10	KFUM 2	24	7	4	13	49	66	25
11	Grei	24	8	1	15	44	73	25
12	Ullern	24	7	2	15	43	62	23
13	Nordstrand	24	6	2	16	36	54	20
14	Konnerud	24	5	2	17	38	65	17

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gamle Oslo	Baerum
Grei	1-2 L	7-1 W
Nordstrand	1-0 W	1-0 W
Lokomotiv Oslo	1-4 L	2-5 L
Asker	1-2 L	2-4 L
Valerenga 2	1-2 L	0-2 L
IF Ready	3-2 W	1-2 L
Konnerud	7-1 W	1-1 D
Ullern	5-2 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Gamle Oslo (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gamle Oslo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	1-2	1	5	L
10/10	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-0	11	3	W
03/10	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
26/09	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	1-4	0	6	L
20/09	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-2	0	5	L
12/09	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-2	4	3	L
04/09	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
30/08	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	3-2	6	6	W
15/08	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	5-0	7-1	7	1	W
08/08	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-2	5-2	12	5	W

Baerum

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
10/10	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-3	2-4	3	4	L
04/10	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
26/09	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
19/09	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-2	4	1	L
13/09	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-4	2-5	9	5	L
05/09	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-0	12	3	W
30/08	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
15/08	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	7-1	14	2	W
10/08	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	5-1	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gamle Oslo vs Baerum?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gamle Oslo win (57%). Probabilities: Gamle Oslo 57%, draw 19%, Baerum 25%.

How many goals are expected in Gamle Oslo vs Baerum?

The model expects 4.38 goals (Gamle Oslo 2.64 · Baerum 1.74), with a 51% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Gamle Oslo vs Baerum?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.