Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 24/10, 13:00

Prediction: Ullern vs Nordstrand

Team pages: Ullern · Nordstrand

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.2Total

Ullern2.34

Nordstrand1.86

1X2

49% 20% 31%

Ullern Draw Nordstrand

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Ullern 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Nordstrand 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Ullern 2–2 Nordstrand (4 last)

Nordstrand2-3Ullern
Nordstrand4-0Ullern
Ullern1-2Nordstrand
Nordstrand0-4Ullern

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ullern 1475 · Nordstrand 1396

	Ullern	Draw	Nordstrand
Our model	48%	21%	31%
Market	49%	20%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 4.2 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ullern (rating 1475 vs 1396).
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ullern	Nordstrand
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 2.7	1.3 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1.2	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.2	1.7 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.83

X4.50

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 41.88

Under 41.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 1.85
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 3.07 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:15 +15’	1.83	4.50	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:11 +62’	1.85	3.84	3.07
04:02 +34’	1.85	3.85▲	3.07

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ullern 2–0–2 Nordstrand

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Nordstrand	2-3 HT 2-1	Ullern
14/09/24 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Nordstrand	4-0 HT 3-0	Ullern
16/05/24 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Ullern	1-2 HT 0-1	Nordstrand
21/08/21 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Nordstrand	0-4 HT 0-3	Ullern

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	24	21	1	2	84	35	64
2	Heming	24	14	5	5	62	38	47
3	Gamle Oslo	24	14	2	8	71	44	44
4	Valerenga 2	24	14	1	9	56	61	43
5	IF Ready	24	11	6	7	60	46	39
6	Baerum	24	12	2	10	66	46	38
7	FK Union Carl Berner	24	12	2	10	44	36	38
8	Frigg	24	9	6	9	53	58	33
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	24	9	2	13	46	68	29
10	KFUM 2	24	7	4	13	49	66	25
11	Grei	24	8	1	15	44	73	25
12	Ullern	24	7	2	15	43	62	23
13	Nordstrand	24	6	2	16	36	54	20
14	Konnerud	24	5	2	17	38	65	17

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ullern	Nordstrand
Baerum	1-2 L	0-1 L
Grei	0-2 L	3-5 L
KFUM 2	3-1 W	2-7 L
Heming	0-3 L	0-2 L
Valerenga 2	2-1 W	0-3 L
Asker	2-6 L	0-1 L
Lokomotiv Oslo	3-2 W	5-0 W
FK Union Carl Berner	4-1 W	1-1 D
Gamle Oslo	2-5 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 5 L	1 W 1 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Nordstrand (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ullern

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-2	4	3	L
10/10	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	0-2	9	3	L
03/10	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	3-0	3-1	0	5	W
26/09	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	0-3	4	5	L
19/09	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
12/09	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-3	3-4	12	3	L
05/09	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-3	2-6	6	1	L
30/08	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	3-0	3-2	2	5	W
15/08	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	4-1	6	1	W
08/08	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-2	2-5	3	5	L

Nordstrand

LLLLDWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
10/10	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
03/10	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	0-3	10	4	L
26/09	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
19/09	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	5-0	3	4	W
12/09	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
05/09	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
01/09	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	3-5	7	3	L
17/08	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-3	2-7	4	4	L
08/08	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	2-3	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ullern vs Nordstrand?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ullern win (49%). Probabilities: Ullern 49%, draw 20%, Nordstrand 31%.

How many goals are expected in Ullern vs Nordstrand?

The model expects 4.2 goals (Ullern 2.34 · Nordstrand 1.86), with a 51% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Ullern vs Nordstrand?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.