Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 24/10, 17:30

Prediction: Frigg vs Grei

Team pages: Frigg · Grei

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.39Total

Frigg1.98

Grei2.4

1X2

32% 20% 47%

Frigg Draw Grei

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Frigg 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDWLWLDLLL

Grei 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLWWWW

Head-to-head

Frigg 3–1–1 Grei (5 last)

Grei2-5Frigg
Grei0-1Frigg
Frigg1-2Grei
Frigg2-2Grei
Grei0-5Frigg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Frigg 1462 · Grei 1481

	Frigg	Draw	Grei
Our model	32%	21%	47%
Market	32%	20%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 4.39 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Frigg: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Frigg	Grei
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 3.1	2 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.7	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.6	2.4 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.80

X4.50

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 41.85

Under 41.95

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 4.75

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 11:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.80▲	Bet365 2.80
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.81 ★
2	2.20 → 1.90▼	Pinn 1.96

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:57 +20’	2.30	4.50	2.20
17:45 +10’	2.40▲	4.50	2.10▼
09:20 +9’	2.55▲	4.75▲	2.00▼
11:34 +17’	2.80▲	4.50▼	1.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:06	2.19	4.25	2.31
07:20 +11’	2.75▲	4.40▲	1.87▼
09:28 +1’	2.76▲	4.26▼	1.89▲
11:18 +34’	2.34▼	4.76▲	2.05▲
15:57 +14’	2.54▲	4.81▲	1.96▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Frigg 3–1–1 Grei

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Grei	2-5 HT 0-3	Frigg
10/08/19 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Grei	0-1 HT 0-1	Frigg
25/05/19 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Frigg	1-2 HT 0-1	Grei
22/09/18 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Frigg	2-2	Grei
04/06/18 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Grei	0-5 HT 0-3	Frigg

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	24	21	1	2	84	35	64
2	Heming	24	14	5	5	62	38	47
3	Gamle Oslo	24	14	2	8	71	44	44
4	Valerenga 2	24	14	1	9	56	61	43
5	IF Ready	24	11	6	7	60	46	39
6	Baerum	24	12	2	10	66	46	38
7	FK Union Carl Berner	24	12	2	10	44	36	38
8	Frigg	24	9	6	9	53	58	33
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	24	9	2	13	46	68	29
10	KFUM 2	24	7	4	13	49	66	25
11	Grei	24	8	1	15	44	73	25
12	Ullern	24	7	2	15	43	62	23
13	Nordstrand	24	6	2	16	36	54	20
14	Konnerud	24	5	2	17	38	65	17

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Frigg	Grei
Asker	2-3 L	4-3 W
Gamle Oslo	1-1 D	2-1 W
FK Union Carl Berner	2-6 L	0-1 L
Konnerud	2-0 W	2-3 L
Heming	1-5 L	1-4 L
IF Ready	5-2 W	3-2 W
Lokomotiv Oslo	2-2 D	0-1 L
Nordstrand	3-2 W	5-3 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Grei (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Frigg

WDWLWLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	0-6	2	2	L
14/10	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	2-3	0	4	L
10/10	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	1-4	5	2	L
03/10	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-1	1	4	D
26/09	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-5	2-6	2	2	L
19/09	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
12/09	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	1-5	7	2	L
05/09	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	5-2	7	4	W
15/08	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
08/08	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	3-2	5	4	W

Grei

LLWLLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	2-1	7	5	W
10/10	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
03/10	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	4-3	5	2	W
26/09	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	3-2	2	6	W
19/09	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-3	1-4	5	1	L
12/09	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	2-3	0	4	L
05/09	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	0-1	12	4	L
01/09	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	5-3	2	3	W
15/08	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-7	2	2	L
08/08	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	0-1	5	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Frigg vs Grei?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Grei win (47%). Probabilities: Frigg 32%, draw 20%, Grei 47%.

How many goals are expected in Frigg vs Grei?

The model expects 4.39 goals (Frigg 1.98 · Grei 2.4), with a 53% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Frigg vs Grei?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.