Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 01/11, 12:00

Prediction: FK Union Carl Berner vs Heming

Team pages: FK Union Carl Berner · Heming

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.18Total

FK Union Carl Berner2.01

Heming2.17

1X2

36% 21% 43%

FK Union Carl Berner Draw Heming

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-1 7%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Union Carl Berner 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWDWLWL

Heming 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWDDWW

Head-to-head

FK Union Carl Berner 0–1 Heming (1 last)

Heming2-0FK Union Carl Berner

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Union Carl Berner 1517 · Heming 1551

	FK Union Carl Berner	Draw	Heming
Our model	36%	21%	42%
Market	37%	20%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 4.18 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Union Carl Berner	Heming
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.9	3.3 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.6	1.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.1	2.7 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.45

X4.40

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.90

Under 4.251.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 4.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	4.40 → 4.40	Bet365 4.40
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:53 +7’	2.45	4.40	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Union Carl Berner 0–0–1 Heming

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Heming	2-0 HT 2-0	FK Union Carl Berner

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	25	22	1	2	89	36	67
2	Heming	25	15	5	5	66	40	50
3	Gamle Oslo	25	14	3	8	73	46	45
4	Valerenga 2	25	14	1	10	58	64	43
5	IF Ready	25	12	6	7	63	48	42
6	Baerum	25	12	3	10	68	48	39
7	FK Union Carl Berner	25	12	2	11	45	41	38
8	Frigg	25	9	6	10	53	62	33
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	25	9	2	14	48	72	29
10	KFUM 2	25	8	4	13	52	68	28
11	Grei	25	9	1	15	48	73	28
12	Ullern	25	8	2	15	49	62	26
13	Nordstrand	25	6	2	17	36	60	20
14	Konnerud	25	5	2	18	40	68	17

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Union Carl Berner	Heming
Asker	1-5 L	2-5 L
Valerenga 2	4-0 W	5-2 W
Lokomotiv Oslo	4-1 W	4-2 W
KFUM 2	1-1 D	2-2 D
Frigg	6-2 W	5-1 W
Nordstrand	1-1 D	2-0 W
Grei	1-0 W	4-1 W
Ullern	1-4 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	6 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Heming (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Union Carl Berner

LWDWWDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	1-5	–	–	L
17/10	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	3-0	4-0	8	5	W
10/10	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	0-4	5	3	L
03/10	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	3-1	4-1	5	4	W
29/09	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
26/09	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	5-1	6-2	5	2	W
19/09	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	3	1	W
12/09	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
05/09	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
15/08	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	1-4	7	1	L

Heming

LWLWWWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	4-2	–	–	W
17/10	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
13/10	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-2	6	4	D
03/10	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-2	5-5	7	5	D
26/09	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	3-0	5	5	W
19/09	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	3-0	4-1	6	1	W
12/09	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	5-1	3	2	W
04/09	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
30/08	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	5-2	7	4	W
15/08	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	2-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Union Carl Berner vs Heming?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Heming win (43%). Probabilities: FK Union Carl Berner 36%, draw 21%, Heming 43%.

How many goals are expected in FK Union Carl Berner vs Heming?

The model expects 4.18 goals (FK Union Carl Berner 2.01 · Heming 2.17), with a 52% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Union Carl Berner vs Heming?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.