Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 01/11, 12:00

Prediction: Grei vs Valerenga 2

Team pages: Grei · Valerenga 2

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.42Total

Grei2.58

Valerenga 21.84

1X2

54% 19% 27%

Grei Draw Valerenga 2

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Grei 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Valerenga 2 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Grei 0–3 Valerenga 2 (3 last)

Valerenga 23-1Grei
Grei2-6Valerenga 2
Valerenga 22-1Grei

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Grei 1513 · Valerenga 2 1520

	Grei	Draw	Valerenga 2
Our model	53%	20%	27%
Market	54%	19%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 4.42 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Valerenga 2: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Grei	Valerenga 2
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 2.4	2.2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4	3.2 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.75

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.88

Under 4.251.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 4.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
17:51 +8’	1.67	4.75	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Grei 0–0–3 Valerenga 2

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Valerenga 2	3-1 HT 1-1	Grei
27/08/19 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Grei	2-6 HT 0-3	Valerenga 2
13/05/19 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Valerenga 2	2-1 HT 2-0	Grei

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	25	22	1	2	89	36	67
2	Heming	25	15	5	5	66	40	50
3	Gamle Oslo	25	14	3	8	73	46	45
4	Valerenga 2	25	14	1	10	58	64	43
5	IF Ready	25	12	6	7	63	48	42
6	Baerum	25	12	3	10	68	48	39
7	FK Union Carl Berner	25	12	2	11	45	41	38
8	Frigg	25	9	6	10	53	62	33
9	Lokomotiv Oslo	25	9	2	14	48	72	29
10	KFUM 2	25	8	4	13	52	68	28
11	Grei	25	9	1	15	48	73	28
12	Ullern	25	8	2	15	49	62	26
13	Nordstrand	25	6	2	17	36	60	20
14	Konnerud	25	5	2	18	40	68	17

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Grei	Valerenga 2
Frigg	4-0 W	4-1 W
Gamle Oslo	2-1 W	2-1 W
Ullern	2-0 W	1-2 L
IF Ready	3-2 W	4-3 W
Heming	1-4 L	2-5 L
Konnerud	2-3 L	2-1 W
FK Union Carl Berner	0-1 L	0-4 L
Nordstrand	5-3 W	3-0 W
Baerum	1-7 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 4 L	6 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Grei

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	4-0	2	3	W
17/10	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	2-1	7	5	W
10/10	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
03/10	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	4-3	5	2	W
26/09	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	3-2	2	6	W
19/09	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-3	1-4	5	1	L
12/09	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	2-3	0	4	L
05/09	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	0-1	12	4	L
01/09	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	5-3	2	3	W
15/08	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-7	2	2	L

Valerenga 2

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	2-3	4	1	L
17/10	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-3	0-4	6	5	L
10/10	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	4-1	6	2	W
03/10	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	3-0	5	4	W
26/09	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
19/09	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-2	8	4	L
12/09	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	3	3	W
05/09	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	7	5	W
30/08	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	2-5	6	4	L
16/08	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	4-3	10	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Grei vs Valerenga 2?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Grei win (54%). Probabilities: Grei 54%, draw 19%, Valerenga 2 27%.

How many goals are expected in Grei vs Valerenga 2?

The model expects 4.42 goals (Grei 2.58 · Valerenga 2 1.84), with a 51% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Grei vs Valerenga 2?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.