Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 31/10, 13:00
Prediction: Baerum vs Frigg
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.56Total
Baerum2.9
Frigg1.66
1X2
Baerum
Draw
Frigg
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 63%
Most likely score
2-1 7%
Recent form · 10 last
Baerum
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Frigg
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Baerum
2–2–2
Frigg
(6 last)
- Frigg1-1Baerum
- Baerum2-3Frigg
- Frigg3-4Baerum
- Frigg0-4Baerum
- Frigg3-3Baerum
- Baerum1-3Frigg
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Baerum 1466 · Frigg 1421
| Baerum | Draw | Frigg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 18% | 20% |
| Market | 63% | 17% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.56 goals · Bet365 line 4.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Baerum (rating 1466 vs 1421).
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Baerum | Frigg | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 2 | 1.6 / 3.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.1 | 0.6 / 1.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/70/30% | 10/20/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 6.6 | 1.8 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 2.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Baerum 2–2–2 Frigg
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1 | Frigg | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Baerum |
| 13/09/25 Norway Division 3 Group 1 | Baerum | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Frigg |
| 28/06/25 Norway Division 3 Group 1 | Frigg | 3-4 HT 1-2 | Baerum |
| 08/03/25 Club Friendly List | Frigg | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Baerum |
| 21/09/24 Norway Division 3 Group 3 | Frigg | 3-3 HT 2-1 | Baerum |
| 05/05/24 Norway Division 3 Group 3 | Baerum | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Frigg |
Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asker | 25 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 89 | 36 | 67 |
| 2 | Heming | 25 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 66 | 40 | 50 |
| 3 | Gamle Oslo | 25 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 73 | 46 | 45 |
| 4 | Valerenga 2 | 25 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 58 | 64 | 43 |
| 5 | IF Ready | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 63 | 48 | 42 |
| 6 | Baerum | 25 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 68 | 48 | 39 |
| 7 | FK Union Carl Berner | 25 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 45 | 41 | 38 |
| 8 | Frigg | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 53 | 62 | 33 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv Oslo | 25 | 9 | 2 | 14 | 48 | 72 | 29 |
| 10 | KFUM 2 | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 52 | 68 | 28 |
| 11 | Grei | 25 | 9 | 1 | 15 | 48 | 73 | 28 |
| 12 | Ullern | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 49 | 62 | 26 |
| 13 | Nordstrand | 25 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 36 | 60 | 20 |
| 14 | Konnerud | 25 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 40 | 68 | 17 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Baerum | Frigg |
|---|---|---|
| Gamle Oslo | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Asker | 2-4 L | 2-3 L |
| IF Ready | 1-2 L | 5-2 W |
| Valerenga 2 | 0-2 L | 1-4 L |
| FK Union Carl Berner | 1-2 L | 2-6 L |
| Lokomotiv Oslo | 2-5 L | 2-2 D |
| Konnerud | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Grei | 7-1 W | 0-4 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 5 L | 2 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Frigg (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Baerum
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 17/10 | Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 10/10 | Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 04/10 | IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 26/09 | Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 13/09 | Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-4 | 2-5 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 15/08 | Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-1 | 7-1 | 14 | 2 | W |
Frigg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 19/10 | KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
0-1 | 0-6 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 14/10 | Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
0-2 | 2-3 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 10/10 | Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
0-2 | 1-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 03/10 | Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 26/09 | FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-5 | 2-6 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 19/09 | Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-2 | 1-5 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-2 | 5-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Baerum vs Frigg?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Baerum win (63%). Probabilities: Baerum 63%, draw 17%, Frigg 20%.
How many goals are expected in Baerum vs Frigg?
The model expects 4.56 goals (Baerum 2.9 · Frigg 1.66), with a 54% chance of under 4.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Baerum vs Frigg?
The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.