Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 12/09, 13:00

Prediction: Konnerud vs Grei

Team pages: Konnerud · Grei

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.11Total

Konnerud2.3

Grei1.8

1X2

49% 21% 30%

Konnerud Draw Grei

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Konnerud 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Grei 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Konnerud 0–1 Grei (1 last)

Grei3-1Konnerud

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Konnerud 1422 · Grei 1406

	Konnerud	Draw	Grei
Our model	49%	21%	30%
Market	49%	21%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 4.11 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Konnerud	Grei
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.8	1.4 / 3.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.4	0.8 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.8	2 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.83

X4.20

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 41.90

Under 41.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 4.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:28 +22’	1.83	4.20	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Konnerud 0–0–1 Grei

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Grei	3-1 HT 2-0	Konnerud

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	17	15	1	1	61	22	46
2	Gamle Oslo	18	13	1	4	65	33	40
3	Baerum	18	11	2	5	58	30	35
4	Heming	18	10	3	5	41	29	33
5	Valerenga 2	18	10	1	7	44	53	31
6	Frigg	17	8	5	4	44	33	29
7	IF Ready	18	7	6	5	42	34	27
8	FK Union Carl Berner	17	8	0	9	26	26	24
9	KFUM 2	16	5	2	9	34	45	17
10	Ullern	18	5	2	11	34	49	17
11	Nordstrand	18	5	1	12	30	46	16
12	Lokomotiv Oslo	17	4	2	11	27	53	14
13	Konnerud	18	4	1	13	26	49	13
14	Grei	18	4	1	13	30	60	13

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Konnerud	Grei
Baerum	1-1 D	1-7 L
FK Union Carl Berner	2-1 W	0-1 L
Nordstrand	2-3 L	5-3 W
IF Ready	0-1 L	3-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Konnerud (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Konnerud

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-2	7	5	L
30/08	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
15/08	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-5	1-7	1	1	L
07/08	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	2-1	6	3	W
01/08	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	2-3	2	3	L
25/07	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	1-3	8	4	L
25/06	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
20/06	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	2-7	1	1	L
13/06	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
30/05	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-2	6	2	L

Grei

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	0-1	12	4	L
01/09	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	5-3	2	3	W
15/08	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-7	2	2	L
08/08	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
03/08	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	0-5	2	3	L
25/07	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	3-1	2	4	W
27/06	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-3	1-5	2	3	L
20/06	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-2	2	2	L
13/06	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	3-5	1	5	L
30/05	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	0-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Konnerud vs Grei?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Konnerud win (49%). Probabilities: Konnerud 49%, draw 21%, Grei 30%.

How many goals are expected in Konnerud vs Grei?

The model expects 4.11 goals (Konnerud 2.3 · Grei 1.8), with a 51% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Konnerud vs Grei?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.