Football · Norway Division 2 Group 2 · 05/09, 13:00

Prediction: Follo vs Tromsdalen

Team pages: Follo · Tromsdalen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Follo1.22

Tromsdalen1.85

1X2

25% 23% 52%

Follo Draw Tromsdalen

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Follo 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLLLDL

Tromsdalen 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLDWWL

Head-to-head

Follo 2–1–3 Tromsdalen (6 last)

Tromsdalen0-0Follo
Follo2-1Tromsdalen
Tromsdalen2-1Follo
Tromsdalen8-0Follo
Follo3-1Tromsdalen
Follo0-3Tromsdalen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Follo 1428 · Tromsdalen 1491

	Follo	Draw	Tromsdalen
Our model	24%	25%	51%
Market	26%	22%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tromsdalen (rating 1428 vs 1491).
H2H favours Tromsdalen: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Follo	Tromsdalen
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.4	1.2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.5	2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.6	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.50

X4.10

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.85

2 (-0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.16
2	1.70 → 1.70	Pinn 1.78 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:34 +13’	3.50	4.10	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:46	3.45	4.17	1.77
15:43	3.45	4.16▼	1.78▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Follo 2–1–3 Tromsdalen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Tromsdalen	0-0 HT 0-0	Follo
21/09/25 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Follo	2-1 HT 1-1	Tromsdalen
03/05/25 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Tromsdalen	2-1 HT 0-1	Follo
14/09/24 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Tromsdalen	8-0 HT 1-0	Follo
02/06/24 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Follo	3-1 HT 3-0	Tromsdalen
07/08/16 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Follo	0-3 HT 0-2	Tromsdalen

Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kjelsås	17	13	1	3	39	22	40
2	Eidsvold TF	17	12	3	2	41	14	39
3	Levanger	17	12	0	5	40	19	36
4	Honefoss	17	11	2	4	46	25	35
5	Grorud	16	8	3	5	24	15	27
6	Lørenskog	17	8	2	7	27	29	26
7	Stjørdals/Blink	17	7	3	7	31	30	24
8	Rana FK	17	7	3	7	32	32	24
9	Tromsdalen	16	7	2	7	25	30	23
10	Junkeren	17	6	3	8	24	30	21
11	Skeid	17	4	2	11	23	35	14
12	Follo	17	2	4	11	20	37	10
13	Ullensaker/Kisa	17	3	1	13	22	56	10
14	Trygg/Lade	17	2	3	12	20	40	9

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Follo	Tromsdalen
Trygg/Lade	1-2 L	2-1 W
Kjelsås	1-4 L	1-3 L
Ullensaker/Kisa	1-2 L	2-1 W
Skeid	0-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Tromsdalen (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Follo

LLLLDLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Honefoss Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-2	6	3	L
26/08	Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	3-3	–	–	D
16/08	Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-3	7	6	L
08/08	Junkeren Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-3	1-4	6	3	L
02/08	Trygg/Lade Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	1-2	2	2	L
25/07	Tromsdalen Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
28/06	Levanger Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	0-2	7	6	L
12/06	Kjelsås Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-3	1-4	4	2	L
30/05	Ullensaker/Kisa Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	1-2	6	7	L
23/05	Skeid Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-2	0-2	6	5	L

Tromsdalen

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Kjelsås Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
09/08	Lørenskog Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
02/08	Ullensaker/Kisa Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
25/07	Follo Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
26/06	Eidsvold TF Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	1-2	2	2	L
20/06	Stjørdals/Blink Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-3	2-4	2	1	L
14/06	Lørenskog Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-3	0-6	4	3	L
31/05	Skeid Norway Division 2 Group 2	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
24/05	Trygg/Lade Norway Division 2 Group 2	2-0	2-1	10	5	W
14/05	Grorud Norway Division 2 Group 2	0-1	0-2	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Follo vs Tromsdalen?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tromsdalen win (52%). Probabilities: Follo 25%, draw 23%, Tromsdalen 52%.

How many goals are expected in Follo vs Tromsdalen?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Follo 1.22 · Tromsdalen 1.85), with a 57% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Follo vs Tromsdalen?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.