Football · Georgia Erovnuli Liga · 23/10, 18:00

Prediction: FC Rustavi vs Dinamo Tbilisi

Team pages: FC Rustavi · Dinamo Tbilisi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.32Total

FC Rustavi1.14

Dinamo Tbilisi1.18

1X2

34% 29% 37%

FC Rustavi Draw Dinamo Tbilisi

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Rustavi 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDLDWLWW

Dinamo Tbilisi 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Rustavi 1–2–3 Dinamo Tbilisi (6 last)

Dinamo Tbilisi0-3FC Rustavi
FC Rustavi2-3Dinamo Tbilisi
Dinamo Tbilisi0-0FC Rustavi
FC Rustavi0-2Dinamo Tbilisi
Dinamo Tbilisi2-2FC Rustavi
FC Rustavi0-1Dinamo Tbilisi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Rustavi 1555 · Dinamo Tbilisi 1555

	FC Rustavi	Draw	Dinamo Tbilisi
Our model	33%	31%	36%
Market	35%	28%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Dinamo Tbilisi: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Rustavi	Dinamo Tbilisi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.6	1.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.2	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.1	2.2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.25

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.81 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.48

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:02 +4’	2.55	3.25	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:13 +49’	2.81	3.00	2.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Rustavi 1–2–3 Dinamo Tbilisi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Dinamo Tbilisi	0-3 HT 0-3	FC Rustavi
11/05/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Rustavi	2-3 HT 2-2	Dinamo Tbilisi
11/03/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Dinamo Tbilisi	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Rustavi
09/11/19 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Rustavi	0-2 HT 0-0	Dinamo Tbilisi
25/08/19 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Dinamo Tbilisi	2-2 HT 1-0	FC Rustavi
28/05/19 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Rustavi	0-1 HT 0-1	Dinamo Tbilisi

Standings · Georgia Erovnuli Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dinamo Batumi	29	15	8	6	50	37	53
2	FC Rustavi	29	15	7	7	36	24	52
3	FC Iberia 1999	29	16	4	9	42	31	52
4	Dinamo Tbilisi	29	14	9	6	48	32	51
5	Dila Gori	29	12	4	13	39	35	40
6	Samgurali	29	11	5	13	43	52	38
7	Torpedo Kutaisi	29	9	10	10	46	38	37
8	FC Gagra	29	6	11	12	26	43	29
9	FC Spaeri	29	5	11	13	38	49	26
10	Meshakhte Tkibuli	29	2	11	16	21	48	17

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Rustavi	Dinamo Tbilisi
Torpedo Kutaisi	1-0 W	1-1 D
Dila Gori	3-1 W	2-1 W
FC Iberia 1999	0-2 L	2-1 W
Meshakhte Tkibuli	1-0 W	0-0 D
FC Spaeri	1-1 D	3-1 W
Dinamo Batumi	0-1 L	0-1 L
Samgurali	1-1 D	3-2 W
FC Gagra	3-0 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Dinamo Tbilisi (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Rustavi

WWWDLDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
10/10	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-0	3-1	4	6	W
21/09	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
14/09	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
09/09	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
04/09	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
30/08	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
22/08	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	3-0	3	4	W
15/08	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	3-0	3-0	4	3	W
07/08	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-0	4	6	W

Dinamo Tbilisi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	3-1	5	1	W
11/10	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
04/10	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
19/09	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-2	3-2	2	5	W
14/09	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	3-0	4-0	5	5	W
10/09	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
06/09	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
31/08	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
15/08	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-3	0-3	3	3	L
09/08	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	2-1	4	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Rustavi vs Dinamo Tbilisi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Dinamo Tbilisi win (37%). Probabilities: FC Rustavi 34%, draw 29%, Dinamo Tbilisi 37%.

How many goals are expected in FC Rustavi vs Dinamo Tbilisi?

The model expects 2.32 goals (FC Rustavi 1.14 · Dinamo Tbilisi 1.18), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Rustavi vs Dinamo Tbilisi?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.