Football · Georgia Erovnuli Liga · 23/10, 16:00

Prediction: FC Spaeri vs FC Gagra

Team pages: FC Spaeri · FC Gagra

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

FC Spaeri1.7

FC Gagra1.35

1X2

45% 26% 30%

FC Spaeri Draw FC Gagra

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Spaeri 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

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FC Gagra 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Spaeri 3–2–1 FC Gagra (6 last)

FC Gagra1-1FC Spaeri
FC Spaeri3-0FC Gagra
FC Gagra0-3FC Spaeri
FC Spaeri1-1FC Gagra
FC Spaeri2-0FC Gagra
FC Gagra2-0FC Spaeri

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Spaeri 1463 · FC Gagra 1428

	FC Spaeri	Draw	FC Gagra
Our model	45%	26%	30%
Market	45%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Spaeri: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Spaeri	FC Gagra
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.4	0.8 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.4	0.2 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.3	2.4 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	3.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.05
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.20 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:47 +18’	2.00	3.50	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:13 +50’	2.05	3.41	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Spaeri 3–2–1 FC Gagra

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/08/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Gagra	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Spaeri
11/05/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Spaeri	3-0 HT 1-0	FC Gagra
11/03/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Gagra	0-3 HT 0-2	FC Spaeri
05/11/24 Georgia Cup	FC Spaeri	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Gagra
12/12/22 Georgia Play-Offs	FC Spaeri	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Gagra
08/12/22 Georgia Play-Offs	FC Gagra	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Spaeri

Standings · Georgia Erovnuli Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dinamo Batumi	29	15	8	6	50	37	53
2	FC Rustavi	29	15	7	7	36	24	52
3	FC Iberia 1999	29	16	4	9	42	31	52
4	Dinamo Tbilisi	29	14	9	6	48	32	51
5	Dila Gori	29	12	4	13	39	35	40
6	Samgurali	29	11	5	13	43	52	38
7	Torpedo Kutaisi	29	9	10	10	46	38	37
8	FC Gagra	29	6	11	12	26	43	29
9	FC Spaeri	29	5	11	13	38	49	26
10	Meshakhte Tkibuli	29	2	11	16	21	48	17

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Spaeri	FC Gagra
Dinamo Tbilisi	1-3 L	0-4 L
Torpedo Kutaisi	3-3 D	1-1 D
Dila Gori	1-4 L	0-1 L
FC Iberia 1999	0-1 L	2-0 W
FC Rustavi	1-1 D	0-3 L
Meshakhte Tkibuli	2-2 D	1-1 D
Dinamo Batumi	0-3 L	1-3 L
Samgurali	3-4 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 5 L	1 W 2 D 5 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Spaeri

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	1-3	3	1	L
10/10	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-2	3-3	1	6	D
21/09	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-4	1-4	12	1	L
13/09	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
09/09	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
05/09	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-2	2-2	7	3	D
30/08	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-3	0-3	4	5	L
22/08	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	3-1	3-4	7	4	L
17/08	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
09/08	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-2	6	1	L

FC Gagra

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-2	1-3	5	6	L
11/10	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	0-3	7	1	L
19/09	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
14/09	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-3	0-4	4	5	L
10/09	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
05/09	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
31/08	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
22/08	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-3	3	4	L
17/08	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	10	5	D
08/08	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-2	2-2	5	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Spaeri vs FC Gagra?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Spaeri win (45%). Probabilities: FC Spaeri 45%, draw 26%, FC Gagra 30%.

How many goals are expected in FC Spaeri vs FC Gagra?

The model expects 3.05 goals (FC Spaeri 1.7 · FC Gagra 1.35), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Spaeri vs FC Gagra?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.