Football · Georgia Erovnuli Liga · 24/10, 17:00

Prediction: Dinamo Batumi vs Samgurali

Team pages: Dinamo Batumi · Samgurali

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

Dinamo Batumi2.16

Samgurali1.16

1X2

59% 23% 18%

Dinamo Batumi Draw Samgurali

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Dinamo Batumi 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWDWWW

Samgurali 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWDLLLLWW

Head-to-head

Dinamo Batumi 2–1–3 Samgurali (6 last)

Samgurali0-4Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Batumi3-1Samgurali
Samgurali1-1Dinamo Batumi
Samgurali4-0Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Batumi1-2Samgurali
Samgurali3-0Dinamo Batumi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dinamo Batumi 1609 · Samgurali 1485

	Dinamo Batumi	Draw	Samgurali
Our model	59%	22%	19%
Market	58%	24%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dinamo Batumi (rating 1609 vs 1485).
H2H favours Samgurali: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dinamo Batumi	Samgurali
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.7	1.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.2	0.8 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.3	1.1 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.53

X3.75

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.88

2 (+1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:39 +41’	1.53	3.75	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dinamo Batumi 2–1–3 Samgurali

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Samgurali	0-4 HT 0-3	Dinamo Batumi
10/05/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Dinamo Batumi	3-1 HT 2-0	Samgurali
12/03/26 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Samgurali	1-1 HT 0-1	Dinamo Batumi
30/11/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Samgurali	4-0 HT 2-0	Dinamo Batumi
28/09/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Dinamo Batumi	1-2 HT 0-1	Samgurali
25/05/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	Samgurali	3-0 HT 2-0	Dinamo Batumi

Standings · Georgia Erovnuli Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dinamo Batumi	29	15	8	6	50	37	53
2	FC Rustavi	29	15	7	7	36	24	52
3	FC Iberia 1999	29	16	4	9	42	31	52
4	Dinamo Tbilisi	29	14	9	6	48	32	51
5	Dila Gori	29	12	4	13	39	35	40
6	Samgurali	29	11	5	13	43	52	38
7	Torpedo Kutaisi	29	9	10	10	46	38	37
8	FC Gagra	29	6	11	12	26	43	29
9	FC Spaeri	29	5	11	13	38	49	26
10	Meshakhte Tkibuli	29	2	11	16	21	48	17

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dinamo Batumi	Samgurali
FC Gagra	3-1 W	3-0 W
Dinamo Tbilisi	1-0 W	2-3 L
Torpedo Kutaisi	3-2 W	2-3 L
Dila Gori	2-2 D	1-3 L
FC Iberia 1999	2-0 W	1-2 L
FC Rustavi	1-0 W	1-1 D
FC Spaeri	3-0 W	4-3 W
Meshakhte Tkibuli	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	7 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Dinamo Batumi (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dinamo Batumi

DWWWWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-0	3-1	2	6	W
11/10	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
20/09	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	3-2	9	9	W
13/09	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
09/09	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
04/09	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-0	3	8	W
30/08	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	3-0	3-0	3	5	W
21/08	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
16/08	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	3-0	4-0	5	4	W
08/08	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-0	2-2	6	1	D

Samgurali

WLWDLLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
11/10	FC Gagra Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-0	3-0	2	1	W
19/09	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-2	2-3	4	5	L
14/09	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-2	2-3	8	3	L
09/09	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
05/09	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
30/08	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
22/08	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-3	4-3	1	4	W
16/08	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-3	0-4	1	4	L
09/08	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	1-1	2-1	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dinamo Batumi vs Samgurali?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dinamo Batumi win (59%). Probabilities: Dinamo Batumi 59%, draw 23%, Samgurali 18%.

How many goals are expected in Dinamo Batumi vs Samgurali?

The model expects 3.32 goals (Dinamo Batumi 2.16 · Samgurali 1.16), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Dinamo Batumi vs Samgurali?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.